A year ago, Maksym Khrushov took to the streets for the first time with a Ukrainian flag. A breath of fresh air after eight months of life under occupation, in Kherson, the only regional capital taken by the Russians, then liberated on November 11, 2022. “At first, we didn’t believe it, but when we understood that it was ours, it was euphoria, tears of joy. We said to ourselves: that’s it, it’s over, only two or three weeks left and we will recover Crimea”, says this father of family who, with his wife and 15-year-old daughter, has never left the city. “We thought everything would be better.” However, the liberation of Kherson remains the latest good military news to date. A year later, the Ukrainian counter-offensive was thwarted by impenetrable Russian fortifications and a lack of weapons.
In Kherson, Ukrainian troops have established a bridgehead on the other side of the Dnieper River, but they are struggling to go further. The 70,000 inhabitants who remained there – out of the 330,000 before the war – faced the deluge of Russian fire. As at the time of the occupation, the Khrushov family, whose building was hit by gunfire a year ago, is limiting their travel. “The scariest thing is that our daughter has gotten used to the sounds of bombs. We no longer pay attention to them, even if not a day goes by without an explosion,” breathes this sound engineer who would like to leave, but cannot find accommodation to accommodate his family and, above all, his three cats and his dog. “Our survival instinct disappears over time.” At the bus stop, at the market, at home or in the courtyard, residents are injured or killed every day by strikes. Since the liberation, 400 civilians have been killed and 1,700 injured in the city, according to authorities. “When the invasion started, it was a shock all over the world,” breathes Anna, 15, who spends her time in her room drawing and taking online courses. “Two years later, it’s like it’s become normal.” “I understand that people in the West are tired of war, it’s far away. But for us, it’s war every day,” laments his father, who is worried about the reduction in military aid in 2024. “We won’t be able to stand alone.”
Almost two years after the start of the war, from the trenches to the bombed cities via the ministries of kyiv, all Ukrainians fear the same catastrophic scenario: the cessation of international aid. According to the German research center Kiel Institute, aid pledges reached their lowest level between August and October 2023, a drop of 90% compared to the same period, in 2022. Since the start of the war, the Ukraine’s allies and major international organizations (World Bank, IMF) have promised it nearly 255 billion euros in aid, including 182 billion in the short term (already delivered or planned within one year) . These commitments include 141 billion euros in financial aid, 16 billion in humanitarian aid and 98 billion in military aid.
“The fewer shells we have, the more Ukrainians the war kills”
“Kiev now relies on a core of donors, specifies the Kiel Institute. This group is made up of the United States, Germany and the Nordic and Eastern European countries, which continue to promise and provide financial aid and significant weaponry, such as F-16 fighter jets.” Washington remains the largest military donor with 44 billion euros in commitments. But Joe Biden is finding it increasingly difficult to convince the Republican opposition to maintain aid. The American president clearly raised the possibility that the war would go further, namely a Russian attack against a NATO member country which would trigger the United States’ entry into the war.
But this was not enough to convince the Republican opposition in Congress to release an envelope of around 100 billion euros, including funds for Ukraine and Israel. As winter approaches, kyiv insists that it needs more weapons to prevent Russian strikes from plunging millions of people into darkness this winter, like last year. “Russia only hopes for one thing: that the unity of the free world collapses next year,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a video conference between the leaders of the G7 countries. On the Old Continent, things are not better. The member states of the European Union have transferred to Ukraine only half of the million artillery shells promised until spring 2024. The German Defense Minister has already announced that the targets will not be achieved in 2024, because production, which started late, is slipping. “We already felt this lack during the counter-offensive,” relates Andrii, an officer whose artillery brigade intervenes in Robotyne and Avdiivka. “These munitions are used to destroy enemy artillery. But since we don’t have them, our infantry, ordinary people with grenade launchers and automatic weapons, die. In other words, the fewer shells we have, the more the war kills Ukrainians.”
“The prospect of a near victory is fading”
Difficulties on the battlefield fuel differences between Volodymyr Zelensky and the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Valery Zaluzhny. Between exhaustion and lack of resources, the question of the strategy to adopt in the face of Moscow’s human and military resources arises for the first time. “It is certain that the war will end with negotiations, at least for a temporary ceasefire. This is not something we want, especially since at the moment it would be to our disadvantage, explains another military source, who wants to remain anonymous. “But if we run out of help, I fear we will have no choice.” Certainly, surveys show that the majority of Ukrainians oppose negotiations with Russia, especially if they involve the recognition of lost territories. “In the eyes of the population, negotiations would devalue the sacrifice made by Ukrainian soldiers and civilians killed during the war,” explains sociologist Yulia Shukan. “However,” she adds, “the prospect of a near victory has become more distant since the end of the summer. The authorities are beginning to prepare the population for the prospect of a long war.”
The living, for their part, continue to throw their strength into the fight, despite exhaustion, supported by an army of breathless volunteers. These full-time “volunteers” still provide the army with drones, cars and ambulances using crowdfunding. “But we are having more and more difficulty obtaining donations, whether from Ukrainians, whose funds are running out, or from foreigners,” laments Kateryna Halouchka, of the Hospitallers medical battalion, who spent a year on the front line.
“In the evening, when the sirens ring out over Kiev, I wonder how we can fight without help from the West, without shells and without anti-missile systems. It’s a vicious circle of anxiety. I tell myself that in 2024, the “Aid is going to stop, Ukraine is going to fall and we are all going to die, killed by the Russians, whispers Kateryna. And then I see that a new aid package has been voted on or that a foreigner is m sent 100 euros for an ambulance and I breathe and tell myself that we can live… at least a little longer.”
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