TOGETHER. Re-elected President of the Republic, will Emmanuel Macron win a majority in the National Assembly? The President has sealed an alliance which does not seem without risk, even if the result appears undeniable.
Is the way so clear as it seems for Emmanuel Macron and the LREM candidate-deputies? Re-elected President of the Republic at the end of April with less largesse than in 2017, the Head of State postponed the launch of the campaign for the legislative elections as much as possible, casting doubt on the composition of his future government for, in the end, not to make any profound changes, except to National Education, instead indulging in a game of musical chairs. First hopes dashed, while the Elysée had let the noise of a renewal in the ministries run. This was followed by the Damien Abad affair and the Stade de France fiasco for the Champions League final, two subjects which have been extensively commented on, placing the government under fire from critics. Files which the President of the Republic would have done well, especially since, at the same time, an impression of hesitation hovers over a new silent, almost invisible government, a period of pre-electoral reserve obliges, and that no major legislative project has yet been launched. However, even if the left seems to be gaining ground, none of this seems to have an impact on voting intentions for the June 12 and 19 elections, with voters on the way to offering a new parliamentary majority to the Head of State ( read below).
As in 2017, Emmanuel Macron has forged an alliance in order to obtain the majority in the legislative elections. However, the content of the coalition set up in 2022 is very different from that of five years ago. By a simple agreement with the MoDem of François Bayrou, the President of the Republic moved to a confederation bringing together six political parties in addition to the party he founded in 2016. United under the banner “Together”, LREM, the MoDem , Agir (Franck Riester), Horizons (Edouard Philippe), Territory of Progress (Olivier Dussopt), In Common (Barbara Pompili’s party chaired by Philippe Hardouin) and the Radical Party (Laurent Hénart) have sealed a support pact for Emmanuel Macron , conducting negotiations for the distribution of constituencies. Thus, according to the agreement reached, 400 nominations were reserved for LREM, between 101 and 110 for the MoDem, as well as 58 for Horizons, the other formations each winning less than 10 constituencies.
A coalition which is however not without risk, worries one in Macronie. In particular vis-à-vis Edouard Philippe. If the former Prime Minister has always shown his loyalty to the Head of State, his political weight, but also his sympathy side (favorite political figure of the French), grant him the status of both ally and dissident of weight. in case of disagreement. Because if Emmanuel Macron does not obtain the majority (289 seats) with the only LREM candidates and it is the deputies stamped Horizons who allow him, the political force of his ex-tenant of Matignon will only be increased tenfold, him who can then brandish the threat of not voting in favor of a text emanating from the government or the parliamentary majority. In 2017, LREM had won 314 seats, ending however with 268 deputies after several splits and, therefore, without an absolute majority on its own.
For the legislative elections, far fewer polls than during the presidential election are carried out by the various institutes. However, surveys on voting intentions are carried out and make it possible to obtain a snapshot, at the moment T, of what the next National Assembly could look like. According to the results of the studies carried out, “Together” would win between 26 and 28% of the votes cast in the first round. A score that would be significantly close to that of the NUPES, a margin of error of about 2pts being taken into account. On the other hand, according to the projections, it is LREM and its allies who would obtain the majority of the seats in the Bourbon palace. While it takes 289 seats to be in the majority, Together would win between 290 and 330 places in the hemicycle. Currently, the presidential majority represents 350 seats.
If the polls do not predict the choice of voters and the final result of the legislative elections, the trend gives the coalition “Together” majority in the National Assembly, although the deputies of Emmanuel Macron would be fewer than in 2017. During the presidential election, the President of the Republic came out on top in the first round in 266 constituencies, before being placed in the lead in 418 of them in the second. However, on April 24, neither Jean-Luc Mélenchon nor any representative of the NUPES were present given the voting method.
Did La République en Marche really become “Renaissance”?
In recent days, the news of the change of identity of La République en Marche has circulated a lot. After being called En Marche when it was founded six years ago, then LREM once Emmanuel Macron was in power, the political formation had to change its name to be called “Renaissance”. The announcement was made by Stanislas Guerini, Thursday, May 5, 2022, during a press conference at party headquarters. “It is indeed a change of nature and name that we are initiating. It is a refoundation of LREM to build a presidential party which will be called Renaissance”, he explained. Exit LREM, make way for Renaissance? Not quite.
This modification is not definitive. Above all, the announcement could be premature. This is what explains Playbook, citing an inside party source. The majority would be visibly “surprised” to have learned of this announcement of the name change of the main party in the ruling coalition. This same term “Renaissance”, already used as the name for the LREM list in the 2019 European elections, should in reality be used for a “refounding process” to merge LREM into a larger whole. This union which “will absorb the small parties”, according to the source of Playbook, should also include “Agir” and “Territories of progress”, small formations on the same political line as LREM. A hypothesis that Stanislas Guérini seemed to confirm during his visit to RTL on May 6: “We have decided to launch the creation of a new political party, which will be called Renaissance, it is not done yet, but which will bring together (…) political parties, this is the proposal that we we are going to do to our partners, I am thinking of Agir, of Territories of progress (…)”. All with the aim of “creating a broader political party”, he explained. The transition from LREM to Renaissance is therefore not for now.