Abbas Milani, one of the finest experts on the thought of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has published numerous works which decipher the foundations of the Islamic Republic, which he has often compared to the Soviet Union. He recently signed texts in the work Woman, life, freedom under the direction of Marjane Satrapi (Ed. L’Iconoclaste, 2023). For L’Express, he analyzes the reading of the modern world of the mullahs in power in Tehran, and the fragilities of the Islamic Republic on the international scene.
L’Express: You are an expert in the thought of Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme Guide. What is the heart of his ideology?
Abbas Milani: Khamenei has a very consistent ideology. According to him, the world is at a historic turning point: the hour of Islam has arrived, while the West and the communist world are in crisis. The only star that shines on the horizon is that of Islam. The Islamic Republic of Iran constitutes the pioneer base of conquest to constitute the Islamic government of the whole world. He is very clear about this. The other central element for him is that modernity, and the United States which embodies it, represents the main enemy. For him, modernity was created by the Judeo-Christian world in order to wipe Islam off the map. These two elements are the constant pillars of its ideologies.
This supposed advent of Islam goes beyond the fact that Muslims are divided between Shiites and Sunnis?
This is one of the main misconceptions that the West has about Islam, about this divide between Shiites and Sunnis. These two branches are different, but when we talk about political Islam – as theorized by Seyyed Qubt in Egypt, or Khomeini in Iran – they come together around the idea that a global Islamic victory is on the horizon. . Capitalism, socialism, all forms of “isms” other than Islamism are in crisis. Alongside this, Ali Khamenei developed a theory on the cultural war, the idea that there is a “cultural NATO” carried by the Western world to destroy Islamic thought. In a speech given in 2006, Khamenei used the term “cultural NATO” about a conspiracy led by the United States and Israel. These countries try to fight Islam by promoting nihilism, materialism, individualism and rationalism.
Does he really think the advent of Islam is possible or is this rhetoric for political purposes?
He sincerely believes this rhetoric. He is also convinced that the rise of China and Russia will help it take this historic turn. What matters to him is the strategic alliance with China and Russia. The irony is that these two countries have killed more Muslims than anyone else, but Ali Khamenei does not seem to think this is contradictory, as long as they are helping the Iranian regime confront its greatest enemy, the United States.
In the event of a conflict, would the Iranian Supreme Leader go so far as to think that Putin and Xi Jinping would support them?
They clearly thought about it. If you go back and read some of the speeches, former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was much more vocal about this. But many people in Iran worry about this dependence on China and Russia. These two countries have an interest in Iran remaining weak and dependent on them. The Iranian public is deeply suspicious of Russia, and rightly so. As for the Chinese, I don’t think they really want to associate with Iran. The Iranians made a tempting offer to the Chinese to invest in them but they prefer to invest in Saudi Arabia. There are also 200,000 Chinese in the United Arab Emirates. That’s where they think their future lies, not in Iran, to which they throw crumbs. The truth is, they don’t want to get too involved with what they think is a semi-crazy diet that’s only going to cause them trouble.
With the conflict in Gaza and the actions of its affiliated groups, Iran appears more powerful than ever.
With the war in Gaza, Iran appears stronger than before on the international stage, although this is probably only temporary. As soon as an image of horror comes out of Gaza, the regime picks it up and amplifies its dissemination, as the Soviet Union did with wars involving the Americans. We can also compare Khomeini’s version of Islam [NDLR : le fondateur de la République islamique] and from Khamenei to Leninism, with the same vision of History as an inexorable movement towards the victory of their cause. There is also the abandonment of rationalism in favor of a form of dogmatism: the individual must submit to the historical vision, and it is justified to resort to violence or to lie to achieve his goal. Not all Islam resembles Marxism-Leninism, but this is the case for this form of political Islam which considers itself liberating, as educating the masses, as a force which does not need to justify itself, if it is not by saying “I am the voice of Allah”. As Lenin said “I am the voice of History”. A few months ago, Khamenei said: “It is our responsibility to ensure that people go to heaven. Some say: ‘You know, if women want to go to hell, let them!’ No, no, it’s our responsibility.”
Beyond these messianic aims, the goal of the regime is above all its own preservation?
Ayatollah Khomeini declared that preserving the Islamic Republic was the most essential of religious duties. This is very similar to the thinking of the Bolsheviks, who saw themselves as the bastion of the revolution. In Iran, the regime’s supporters are fully committed to preserving the system, some for ideological reasons, others for financial reasons, many for existential reasons. They think that if this regime changes, people will kill them. No one will give them the jobs they have today. Everyone at the top of power is mediocre, including President Raïssi and all the members of his cabinet.
Elections take place on March 1st, what to expect?
There are two elections. One is intended for an assembly of experts. I think the goal clearly seems to be to align everyone who will vote for Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the current Supreme Leader. And anyone who could be a source of distraction like former President Hassan Rouhani has been disqualified. For Parliament, the objective is different: it must obtain a high participation in order to then be able to say that we still have the support of the population. I think it will fail either way. I don’t think people will participate. For me, whoever votes in the Assembly of Experts means nothing. If the Revolutionary Guards (also called Pasdaran) want to have Mojtaba, they will get it. And the IRGC are the de facto influential intermediaries. The IRGC manages almost everything. They constitute the greatest economic force in the country. From athletics to entertainment, gas and oil, construction and services for every field. Companies of the Guardians, companies half-owned by them, companies owned by the IRGC and owned by the commanders. They almost credibly control, I think, at least 50% of the economy.
What would the arrival of Mojtaba Khamenei change as supreme guide?
Mojtaba Khamenei would be an integral part of a system that will be increasingly dominated by the military and the IRGC. He is very close to the Pasdaran, he works closely with them, all those who controlled the Guardians. Apart from that, he has little depth, and does not even have sufficient religious qualifications, in the Iranian Shiite clerical system, to claim the position of Supreme Guide. But if Ali Khamenei disappears from the equation, it is not impossible that the Revolutionary Guards, who are ready to do anything to preserve the system, will make decisions which will apparently make life easier for Iranians. For example, being more lax on the issue of the veil. But, given the economic and social situation, I doubt that this will be enough in the long term to save the regime.
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