Food crisis: the four scenarios to unblock Ukrainian ports

Before the start of the war, Ukraine exported 12% of the world’s wheat and 15% of corn each month. But on February 24, Moscow abruptly turned off the tap. The agricultural superpower that is Ukraine can no longer export its commodities, immobilized in its ports by a blockade by the Russian fleet. “Right now we have 20 to 25 million tons blocked. This fall we could reach 70 to 75 million tons,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned Monday, June 6. This blockage poses a terrible risk of famine to many countries in Africa and the Middle East. In this context, alternative solutions for transporting Ukrainian cereals to countries that desperately need it are complicated to put in place. The Express takes stock of the different possible scenarios.

• Scenario 1: Using land routes

This solution has already begun to be used to enable kyiv to export part of its cereals abroad. Problem: it quickly finds its limits. The volumes that can be transported abroad by land are by nature much smaller than by sea. Before the start of the conflict, 98% of grain exports were carried out by ships transiting the Black Sea. “A container ship can for example transport up to 23,000 containers, which by road represents around 23,000 trucks, notes former Admiral Pascal Ausseur, now Director General of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES ). Even if it can allow small gains, the land route can therefore never replace maritime routes.”

The hypothesis of a shift in exports from the Ukrainian ports to the Romanian port of Constanta has been mentioned, however the latter cannot be able to absorb the immense quantities of grain involved. At the end of May, 240,000 tonnes of Ukrainian grain had already left Constanta according to Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu. A drop of water compared to the 20 to 25 million tonnes still blocked in Ukraine. But the alternatives are slim. The possibility of crossing Belarus to reach the port of Klaipeda in Lithuania has also been formulated, but its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, an ally of Putin, is asking in exchange for the lifting of European sanctions against his country.

Transporting grain by rail poses another problem: the track gauge is different between Ukraine and most of the EU rail network. This forces cereals to be transferred from one train to another once the border has been crossed, further limiting the fluidity of operations. “Beyond the question of volumes, the cost of land transport is higher than that by sea, summarizes Marie Dumoulin, former diplomat and director of the Wider Europe program at the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR). At this point, it’s the only option available.”

• Scenario 2: Escorting merchant ships and clearing Ukrainian ports

At the end of May, Lithuania proposed, with the support of the United Kingdom, the establishment of a naval operation led by a coalition of willing countries, aimed at escorting merchant ships transiting the Black Sea to the port of Odessa. , the largest in Ukraine. “In this venture, military ships or aircraft, or both, would be used so that the grain could safely leave Odessa and reach the Bosphorus without Russian interference,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius said on May 23. Landsbergis. But the plan is not without risks. “If Russia does not agree and we force it to accept a non-negotiated convoy, we can fear an escalation, points out Admiral Ausseur. It could consider these ships as hostile, which would open the door to a possible clash.”

The operation would also require the agreement of Turkey, which controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, allowing access to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean. “Turkey has forbidden access to the Black Sea to Russian warships which are not based there, under the Montreux agreements of 1936, recalls François Heisbourg, special adviser to the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) It is entirely possible that the same logic will apply to us if Western warships ring at its door to enter the Black Sea.”

For their part, Russia and Turkey discussed on Wednesday June 8 the establishment of secure corridors in the Black Sea, in order to facilitate the transit of crops blocked in Ukrainian ports. After a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Mevlüt Cavusoglu, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was “ready to guarantee the safety of ships leaving Ukrainian ports”, in cooperation with Ankara.

This plan, like the Lithuanian proposal, would however require the destruction of the mines installed at sea by Ukraine around Odessa to protect its coast. According to a senior French naval officer, their number is currently estimated at “less than a hundred”. But this possible mine clearance operation has so far been rejected by kyiv, saying it does not have sufficient “guarantees” that Moscow will not take advantage of it to launch an offensive on its port city. “The Russian Black Sea Fleet will pretend to withdraw towards annexed Crimea. But as soon as we clear the access to the port of Odessa, the Russian fleet will be there”, argued Wednesday the spokesman of the administration of the Odessa region, Serguiï Bratchouk, judging that the convoys of Ukrainian wheat could only be escorted “by NATO countries”. This, moreover, is not provided for in the Lithuanian proposal.

• Scenario 3: Destroy the Russian fleet in the Black Sea

This scenario, the most offensive, was mentioned by the Ukrainian authorities. “If we receive even more military support, we will be able to push them back…defeat the Black Sea Fleet and unblock the passage for the ships,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a statement. an interview at FinancialTimes May 20.

Several countries have announced the delivery of naval weapons. On May 23, Denmark pledged to supply Ukraine with Harpoon anti-ship missile systems, while London promised kyiv Brimstone missiles and Sweden is exploring the possibility of sending short-range RBS anti-ship missiles. -17. Despite Moscow’s indisputable naval superiority, Ukrainian forces have managed to sink several Russian warships since the start of the war, including the iconic cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, on 13 april.

Apart from the difficulty, however, of the enterprise, defeating the Russian fleet in the Black Sea would probably not be enough to allow the resumption of maritime traffic, warn the experts. “This would not guarantee the exit of wheat, slice François Heisbourg. Russia would retain the capacity, thanks to its aviation and its missiles, to prevent any movement of boats, or even to directly target Ukrainian grain silos.” On Monday, the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell also denounced the destruction of “the second largest grain terminal in Ukraine” in Mykolaiv. “If the Russians start sinking the boats going to Odessa, the shipowners will refuse to go there and we will end up with a de facto blockade”, confirms Admiral Ausseur.

• Scenario 4: The diplomatic solution

In the absence of convergence between Russia and Ukraine on the establishment of secure corridors in the Black Sea, this solution appears for the time being more than ever at an impasse. “The Ukraine should have the assurance that Russia will not seek to exploit the demining of the port of Odessa to launch an amphibious operation”, specifies Admiral Ausseur. It is a key port city that Kyiv cannot afford to lose after the fall of Mariupol, hence its desire not to weaken its protection.”

The head of Ukrainian diplomacy also warned Western countries on June 6 against the promise of the Russian president not to use the opening of trade routes to launch an attack against Odessa. “This is the same Putin who told German Chancellor Scholz and French President Macron that he would not attack Ukraine days before launching a full-scale invasion of our country,” he said. on Twitter. Three days earlier, the minister had said he was seeking “solutions with the UN and our partners” to allow the resumption of exports from the port city.

For his part, Putin said he was ready, on May 26, “to make a significant contribution to overcoming the food crisis”, subject to the lifting of Western sanctions against Moscow. “We can expect him to raise the stakes, since he is a winner in any case, slips Marie Dumoulin. Either the situation does not unblock, and it does not harm Russia because it continues to sell its wheat as well as that stolen from Ukraine. Either it is part of a diplomatic solution and can benefit from it in terms of image, in addition to obtaining a partial lifting of the sanctions against it.” The risk of starvation is not likely to decrease any time soon.