1. The guest list
COP28 breaks record in attendance – expected to exceed 70,000. Those traveling to Dubai representing a government are in the minority and are joined by researchers, businesses, journalists, lobbyists, activists and others who have an interest in being seen during it the two-week meeting.
At the last moment, the climate conference missed out on papal glory because Francis had to cancel. Nor do the presidents of the biggest emitters, China and the United States, appear. But Britain’s King Charles – sometimes called the climate king – will give the opening speech.
In the first days, a summit meeting is held between world leaders, while responsible ministers usually arrive towards the end to row the negotiations ashore.
2. The health check
This year’s climate meeting is described by many as the most important since the Paris Agreement was concluded in 2015. This is due, among other things, to the fact that for the first time a kind of health check is being carried out on how the work to implement the agreement is going.
The so-called global review (“global stocktake”) summarizes how the countries’ joint efforts and commitments are in relation to the goals of the Paris Agreement, and the process is to be concluded in Dubai. The hope is that the conclusions (spoiler alert: the world is not doing enough, fast enough) will lead to increased ambition.
3. The money
Money, money, money. It is the key issue in the negotiations. Last year there was a breakthrough when COP27 agreed on a fund where richer countries will contribute financially to poorer countries that suffer damage and losses in the wake of climate change. It is hailed as a success for climate justice, but exactly how the fund should work will be tried to hammer out during COP28.
Another corollary is the $100 billion in climate finance that richer countries must pay each year to less developed countries to help them limit emissions and deal with climate change. It has taken several years without all the promised money being delivered, which has led to a bad atmosphere and damaged trust between the parties. Now, however, forecasts point to the goal being achieved for the first time last year.
4. The formulations
The UN climate summit is based on consensus – it is enough for one country to stand in the way for an agreement to fall through. Big emitters, low-lying island nations, fossil-dependent states and developing countries must therefore find common ground, and the delegates carefully scrutinize every wording down to the smallest comma.
A contentious issue in Dubai seems to be the future of fossil fuels. COP26 agreed on a “phase-down” of some coal power while oil and gas were left out. This year, for example, the EU is pushing for an agreement on the phasing out of all fossil fuels without emission-reducing measures, such as carbon dioxide capture (“unabated fossil fuels”). Discussion is expected around wording about phasing out (milder), phasing out (tougher) and whether it should concern all fossil fuels or only those whose emissions are not captured.
5. The protests?
The emirate’s royal house has a monopoly on power, no political parties are allowed and freedom of assembly is curtailed. The limited freedom of expression raises concerns about the opportunities for civil society to raise their voices during COP28.
Dubai has promised “space for climate activists to gather peacefully”. But Human Rights Watch warns of “absolute zero tolerance” against dissent. One concern is that advanced technologies such as facial recognition and AI are being used to monitor public places and the Internet, according to the organization’s expert in the United Arab Emirates.
– We are deeply concerned about how this technology will affect the ability of participants at COP28 to safely, securely and freely participate in the conference, says Joey Shea.