If French clubs continue to obtain good results in the European Cup, they could offer themselves five places in the Champions League from next season.
The excellent results of the French clubs, who are all still in the race in Europe after the group stages, could well offer a fifth place in Champions League to France. From next year, with the reform of European competitions and the increase in the C1 from 32 to 36 clubs, France will obtain a fourth place in C1 via the championship. But above all, an additional place will be reserved for the two countries with the best UEFA coefficient from last season: a reward to which French clubs can claim.
Although France is currently only sixth in the number of points recorded in the UEFA index this season, its total of 11,583 points at the end of the group stage is in reality very high, almost as much as that at the end of the last season (12,583). New positive results could really involve France in the fight for this additional place in the Champions League.
How many points should French clubs score to be in the “top 2” of European nations this season? The answer is actually quite simple: 19 points. No nation has ever finished higher than second place with a total of 19 points or more. France is therefore currently 7.5 points short of obtaining a fifth place in the Champions League. An achievable performance?
By adding the points obtained thanks to the results of the matches and the bonus points accumulated in each past round, we can obtain an estimate of the performances necessary for French clubs to score 7.5 points and win this fifth place in the Champions League. And the scenario is not completely unrealistic: for example, Paris Saint-Germain would have to reach the final of the Champions League and Lille win the Conference League, or vice versa, and OM and RC Lens go as far as the semi-finals of the Europa League.
All this based on the probable hypothesis that Stade Rennais and Toulouse will no longer score any points, because they will face AC Milan and Toulouse respectively. Benfica Lisbon in the Europa League play-offs, two a priori much superior opponents. A nice surprise during these meetings could therefore even bring additional points, as well as a victory for a French club in Europa League For example. Note that the results during the Europa League and Conference League play-off matches do not award points; but a bonus point is given to the one who qualifies for the round of 16 of the Europa League.
If Toulouse and Rennes inherited tough opponents in the Europa League play-off, RC Lens andOM start slightly favorites against SC Friborg and Shakhtar Donetsk, like PSG against Real Sociedad in the round of 16 of C1. Finally, Lille is one of the serious contenders for victory in the Conference League, which is not negligible because it earns almost as many points as the other competitions.
Here, in detail, is the scenario studied:
This estimate is made by counting a victory and a draw during the double confrontations where the French clubs would qualify, and a defeat and a draw in the event of elimination.
- Paris Saint-Germain: Champions League finalist (12/6 = 2 points)
- Olympique de Marseille: semi-finalist of the Europa League (10/6 = 1.67 points)
- RC Lens: semi-finalist of the Europa League (10/6 = 1.67 points)
- Toulouse FC: eliminated in the Europa League play-offs (0 points)
- Rennais Stadium : eliminated in the Europa League play-offs (0 points)
- Lille: winner of the Europa Conference League (13/6 = 2.16 points)
As a reminder, here is the scale applied to calculate the UEFA nations index:
All points indicated are to be divided by the number of clubs participating in the European Cups for each country, therefore 6 for France.
- Any victory from the group stage onwards (except the Europa League and Conference League play-offs): 2 points
- Any draw from the group stage onwards (except play-offs): 1 point
- Results in Europa League and Conference League play-off matches do not award points
- Each round reached by the clubs from the round of 16 (in the Champions League and the Europa League): 1 point
- Qualification in the semi-final and final (in Conference League): 1 point