Hundreds of trucks park on the side of the road near the Ukrainian village of Krakovets. To reach Poland, a few kilometers away, Ukrainian drivers, who beat their heels in the freezing cold, can take several days. It has already been three weeks since the main crossing points between the two countries have been blocked. Since Brussels no longer requires entry permits for Ukrainian truckers, traffic has continued to grow, especially with the intensification of the Kremlin’s blockade of the Black Sea last summer. To export its grain, kyiv had to find other routes – hence the influx of Ukrainian heavy goods vehicles. “Unfair competition !” proclaim the Polish transport companies, who want to restore the right of passage.
In reality, these border tensions are only a new episode of the violent trade dispute which has opposed Ukraine and certain Eastern European countries for several months over the agricultural issue.
Reduced prices
Return in May 2022. To help Ukraine transport its cereals to third countries, Brussels authorizes the creation of “solidarity corridors” across Europe. Ukrainian wheat, corn and sunflowers are supposed to reach European ports and, from there, go to Africa or Asia. Except that these cargoes could not be evacuated due to logistical problems. Part of it was sold on site, at cut-off prices, raising the ire of local farmers. The rest is still stuck in silos, much to the dismay of kyiv. Because selling these crops is vital for the Ukrainian state – agriculture represents around 20% of its GDP.
Today, the situation has not changed. The cereal subject will even be at the heart of discussions on December 14 and 15, during the next European summit, which will address the question of Ukraine’s integration into the EU. If the European Commission gave the green light on November 8 to the opening of accession negotiations, the Twenty-Seven must still approve this decision unanimously. Nothing is less sure.
Although in solidarity with Kiev, Europeans are beginning to realize what a “Europe of Twenty-Eight” would be with a Ukraine which, alone, represents almost a quarter of continental agricultural areas. Rich in organic matter, black soils – chernozyom – of the “European breadbasket” produce 15% of the seeds consumed in the world. You have to travel through the Ukrainian countryside to understand that here, the scale is not the same. “The largest farm exceeds 500,000 hectares, the size of the Jura! underlines a French banker, crossed in kyiv. In our country, no farm reaches 10,000 hectares…”
“Bringing Brazil into Europe”
Suffice to say that the entry into the EU of such an economic actor – even if it only takes place in fifteen years – is scary. “The Twenty-Seven have never been confronted with this,” he continues. “It’s as if we were bringing Brazil into Europe…” Worse, certain member states, like Poland, have understood that an enlargement would move them from the status of beneficiary to that of net contributor to the community budget. In a study revealed on October 4 by the Financial TimesEU officials even estimate that Ukraine’s entry would lead to a reduction in agricultural subsidies to member states by 20%!
But for now, Ukrainian farmers are hardly thinking about it. They care more about their next harvest than their long-term future. “Most farms are short of cash. Since the start of the war, 7% have already gone out of business,” notes Pierre Vauthier, head of the Ukrainian office of the Food and Agriculture Organization. , interviewed in the basements of the United Nations in Kiev, in the midst of an air alert. “Nearly 500,000 hectares are no longer exploited because of mines, bombings and soil pollution,” he says. Thus, in Kharkiv, 28,000 hectares are contaminated with cadmium. In areas close to the front, farmers lack everything. “We must provide them with seeds and fertilizer, otherwise they will end up leaving, which will cause a rural exodus.” Exactly what Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, is looking for, who is doing everything to strangle local agriculture, and therefore the economy.
Exporting is becoming more and more expensive
Mikola Solskyi, the Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture, is aware of this. While emphasizing the “incredible resilience” of his country’s farmers, he is concerned about the rise in logistics costs, “which have increased from 20 to 50% in one year,” he tells us. Exporting is very expensive for them. The problem is all the more serious as the banks no longer lend to them. We must help them.”
This is precisely the purpose of Marc Fesneau’s visit to kyiv on November 10. The French Minister of Agriculture comes to offer French assistance in irrigation, depollution, rural development and health security. He also wants to take the opportunity to discuss what comes next, namely rapprochement with the EU. And there is work there. Because the Ukrainians are not really aware of the fears they arouse in Western Europe…
Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce, a few steps from Saint Sophia Cathedral. In a decor of woodwork and cream and gold tapestries, the entire agricultural sector awaits the French minister firmly. “You know, half of our farmers think that once in Europe, they will be very competitive with you,” boasts its president, Gennadiy Chyzhykov. “That’s the problem,” retorts Marc Fesneau. “Our farmers must not think that your integration will mean their disappearance! Do not position yourselves as competitors, otherwise the populists will raise the scarecrow of the Ukrainian farmer in the next European elections, as they brandished the Polish plumber in 2005, during the debate on the constitutional treaty…”
120,000 chickens per day
It is true that it is better to highlight the opportunities. If Ukraine joins the single market, certain European players will be able to do well. “This is the case for processing manufacturers, who will be able to diversify their purchases”, illustrates Luc Vernet, secretary general of the Farm Europe think tank, in Brussels. To absorb this giant without exploding the common agricultural policy, it will be necessary to reform it. For their part, Ukrainian “agro-holdings” will have to adapt to draconian European standards in terms of pesticides, animal welfare or conversion to organic. “Not sure that a group like MHP, which alone represents 90% of Ukrainian chicken production and exports 120,000 per day to Europe, is very advanced on all these subjects, underlines a French operator. If they want enter the EU, they will have to get in tune. The rules must be the same for everyone!” For Luc Vernet, the transition period (between the start of the accession process and the integration itself) will be “the most difficult to manage” because, during this period of time, “Ukrainian industrialists will have access to the internal market without suffer the constraints”.
But the game is worth it, believes Marc Fesneau. Because the arrival of Ukraine could give new ambitions to the Europeans. “We had integrated, in my opinion by mistake, the idea of agricultural decline in Europe. The Green Pact, voted by Brussels, which promotes a healthy and environmentally friendly food system, was thus considered by some as an incentive to produce less, underlines the minister. But what Vladimir Putin is doing in Ukraine endangers global food security. Linking Kiev to Europe can allow us to become a global player in food and escape from naivety .” A strategic option that must be kept in mind in mid-December, when the Twenty-Seven will reflect on the fate of the Ukrainians.
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