In the war in Ukraine, the front lines have frozen in place, but towards the end of the year there are two possible turning points in sight, says Aleksanteri Institute’s Visiting Researcher Ilmari Käihkö.
Russia has recently succeeded in taking over villages in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, but according to Käihkö, that is not really important.
He points out that Russia has also suffered great losses in its capture of villages. Hardly anyone knows the real losses.
However, Russia has the upper hand, Käihkö reminds.
– It enables the initiative to be maintained. So Russia decides where to attack, and Ukraine has to defend.
Making up for losses is key
American experts evaluate For The New York Timesthat despite its superiority, Russia will hardly be able to take over large areas without a campaign.
According to the newspaper, the reason is that Ukraine has managed to strengthen its defense lines and received more weapons.
Also according to Käihkö, it seems that there will be no major changes on the front during this year.
A NATO official, who appeared anonymously, said at a press conference in Washington on Tuesday that Russia currently manages to recruit around 30,000 soldiers per month.
– Ukraine is hardly capable of this, Käihkö estimates.
He adds that thanks to the new mobilization laws, Ukraine’s campaigning now works better than before.
Energy shortage threatens
The aid package of tens of billions of dollars approved by the United States earlier this year practically saved Ukraine, says Käihkö.
However, Russia took advantage of Ukraine’s months-long lack of ammunition. It managed to destroy energy plants because Ukraine was unable to repel attacks due to a shortage of anti-aircraft missiles, says Käihkö.
According to him, losing energy plants is a huge issue in the consumption war.
From the point of view of Ukraine, with the energy shortage, non-military factors such as the sustainability of society and the economy and the will to fight of the citizens will become the focus of the war.
The coming winter is a possible turning point in the war, because there will probably be long power outages ahead, says Käihkö.
Freezing Ukrainians may only have a few hours of electricity a day.
– This is a terribly worrying thing. Whether it will solve the war is of course unknown.
Already in 2022, Russia tried to destroy Ukrainian energy plants and transmission systems, but did not succeed.
If Ukraine had to evacuate a big city next winter due to a lack of electricity, it would cause a flow of refugees to Europe, Käihkö thinks.
According to him, the key role in defending Ukraine is now strengthening the air defense and repairing the energy infrastructure.
The United States, Germany, Romania and the Netherlands already promised at the NATO summit in Washington on Tuesday that they will hand over Patriot anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine.
In the video, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi explains in Washington why the United States should give Ukraine permission to attack Russian air bases.
Russia learns to combat weapons
An additional headache for Ukraine and its supporters is caused by the fact that Russia has succeeded in developing electronic warfare methods and is able to counter advanced Western precision munitions, writes The Wall Street Journal.
According to the newspaper, Russia is able to, for example, disrupt the GPS signals of satellite-guided missiles and direct them past targets. Among other things, this has reduced the accuracy of American Himars-launched missiles.
Ukrainian military officials and Western experts told the WSJ that it is only a matter of time before Russia learns to better counter Western ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles as well.
The video below shows what ATACMS missiles are like. The video is from April.
Ilmari Käihkö states that the new weapon initially gives the user an advantage on the battlefield. At the same time, it triggers a race where the opponent tries to develop countermeasures to counter the weapon.
It is also the reason why the West has not wanted to give its most advanced weapons to Ukraine. The Russians would learn to combat them, and it could share its lessons with, for example, China, Käihkö estimates.
Interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Defense Department Chief of Staff Lt. Gen Esa Pulkkinen tells the newspaper that, based on Ukraine’s experiences, traditional artillery has retained its value in modern warfare.
Standard artillery ammunition is not affected by electronic interference, Pulkkinen states.
Is the negotiation table foggy?
The war seems to have drifted into a situation where neither side is able to reach a military solution, Käihkö estimates.
Both lack the ability to force an opponent to surrender.
Therefore, a negotiated solution to end the war seems an increasingly likely option.
Kyiv Post reported less than a week ago that Russia had presented a possible peace plan to the United States. According to the proposal, Ukraine should not join NATO and should hand over the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia.
In return, Russia would be ready to negotiate the return of Kherson and Zaporizhia to Ukraine. There would be two versions of the status of Crimea. In the first, it would remain in Russia, and in the second, the peninsula would become a demilitarized area that Russia and Ukraine would administer together.
Käihkö describes the possible negotiation situation as morally “terribly difficult”, because as the aggressor Russia has violated international law and committed war crimes and human rights violations.
According to him, it is against morality to negotiate with or make concessions to such an opponent.
– Now, negotiated peace basically requires concessions, because neither can reach the maximum solution, i.e. the surrender of the opponent.
According to Käihkö, on the one hand, the war can theoretically continue until the other side is no longer able to fight, but it could become a very long and painful process.
In addition, another possible turning point in the war looms towards the end of the year: the US presidential election.
If Donald Trump wins the November election, he can try to force the parties to the negotiating table. Trump could also end US aid to Ukraine.
Then the military situation in Ukraine would probably begin to deteriorate, because Europe would not be able to fully replace the support of the United States, for example, in terms of intelligence, says Käihkö.
From the point of view of Ukraine, the big problem with the negotiated solution is the lack of security guarantees, Käihkö points out. The fear is that after peace is concluded, Russia would gather its forces and later attack again.
– There are no countries that are ready to go to war for Ukraine.
According to Käihkö, it can now be seen at the NATO summit that Ukraine will not be offered a way to become a member of the military alliance, because then NATO could soon be at war with Russia.
The situation is not likely to change quickly, and it leaves Ukraine in a vulnerable position, Käihkö reflects.