Russia has established a new front and plans to attack from three main directions, says a Finnish officer.
Hanna Visala,
Yrjö Kokkonen
The Russian army intends to use the seizure of Avdijivka to its advantage to launch a major attack on Eastern Ukraine, according to a person familiar with the Ukrainian war, who cannot be named for security reasons. Finnish officer.
The officer has participated in the training of the armed forces of Ukraine and his identity is known to .
Russia took possession of Avdijivka last Friday after four months of fierce fighting.
According to the officer, the army designated as the Donetsk Front was responsible for the capture of Avdijivka. The Russians use the term “front” for armies that consist of several units such as brigades.
Russia has established a new army in the direction of Avdijivka. It would carry out a major attack after the winter season, possibly soon. The forces of the Donetsk front will support it at both sites, the officer predicts.
– The attack on the Avdijivka front is headed in the directions of Pokrovski and Pavlohrad, and its final goal is probably the city of Dnipro, says the officer.
Russia plans to launch attacks on other fronts as well.
In the south, the army of Zaporizhzhya has already started the recapture of the areas occupied by Ukraine in the summer in the direction of the city of Robotyne.
According to the officer, Zaporižžja’s target is the city of Zaporižžja.
In the north, Russian military forces have been gathered in the Kupyansk Front.
– Its goal will be to advance to the cities of Izjum and Kramatorsk, the officer estimated.
Ukraine’s power is waning
According to the officer, the situation in Ukraine is constantly deteriorating. Ukraine must not recruit enough men for its armed forces, nor train them properly.
According to him, the poor training of the troops is a big problem for the Ukrainian army.
At the same time, Russia is able to replace its losses with new soldiers.
– The Russian military command has also gradually learned what poorly trained soldiers can accomplish, says the officer.
The waning of material aid from Western countries, especially the United States, is also a big problem, especially for Ukraine’s artillery and air defense. Russia’s arms production, on the other hand, is constantly growing.
Russia was able to develop crushing artillery and air superiority during the capture of Avdijivka, says the officer.
Ukraine has plenty of reconnaissance and attack drones in use. According to the Finnish officer, they apparently cannot replace the scarce artillery grenades and air force.
The officer is surprised that the Ukrainian intelligence did not detect large concentrations of Russian troops in Avdijivka. During the war, opinions have been expressed that in the age of drones, no movement of troops will go unnoticed by the other side.
Military expert Marko Eklund according to which Ukraine should receive significantly more aid from Western countries than it has received so far.
Eklund compares the aid received by Ukraine to a course of antibiotics that has been left unfinished.
– If the course is left unfinished, it only strengthens the disease. Similarly, the aid received by Ukraine is left unfinished and it has given more impetus to the concentration of Russian forces and military equipment, says Eklund.