The campaign launched by Russia in September looked like a chaotic project, but as a result, the situation of the war in Ukraine is changing strongly, according to the Visiting Researcher of the Alexander Institute Ilmari Käihkö.
Minister of Defense of Ukraine It would be Reznikov said yesterday Thursday of the Guardian magazine (you will switch to another service) in the interview, that Russia might start a major offensive with mobilized forces already around the turn of the year. The same message has also been conveyed by the military leadership of Ukraine.
Many Western military experts have estimated that Russia could not have the resources for a significant attack until late spring at the earliest.
According to Käihkö, it is not known what kind of intelligence information Ukraine has at its disposal, but he takes the announcement of an imminent attack threat seriously. The Russian soldiers mobilized in the autumn are already at the front, and they have strengthened Russia’s power, despite the fact that the soldiers may have been poorly trained and equipped, and their motivation has been poor.
Hundreds of thousands of mobilized soldiers will have a great impact on the course of the war, Käihkö states.
– the president of Russia Vladimir Putin there are 318,000 mobilized, and that is an absolutely huge number of men when you consider that Russia did not have 200,000 soldiers when it attacked in February. So this will change the power relations and dynamics of the war quite a bit, Käihkö estimates.
Käihkö regrets that in the West, attention has been focused on the confusion of the implementation of the movement, which led to the underestimation of Russia’s armed forces. Russia’s power in Ukraine has not been underestimated, Käihkö states.
Is Ukraine getting tired?
Ukraine has already been expected to launch its own offensive, with which it could perhaps recapture more of its territory occupied by Russia. Ukraine is known to have concentrated forces in the Zaporizhzhia region, which would suggest that the attack might be headed in the direction of Melitopol.
According to Western estimates, it would be a good time for Ukraine to attack during the winter, when the frozen ground is carrying tanks, and Russia would not have received new troops at its disposal yet.
If Ukraine can launch a counterattack, it will be slower than previous attacks, because Russia has done extensive fortifications behind the front lines, Käihkö says.
A possible attack by Russia in just a couple of weeks would confuse Ukraine’s possible attack plans.
An attack would also require a lot of resources, such as ammunition stores. Ukraine has been complaining about the lack of ammunition for almost the entire war. So it is uncertain that if it were to launch an attack, it would be able to achieve its goals.
Throughout the autumn, Russia has maintained a very exhausting frontal war around the city of Bahmut in Donbas.
These battles have been fought with a few tens of thousands of soldiers. If Russia is now getting, for example, 150,000 more men to the front, the scale of the battles would change to a completely different scale, Käihkö states.
According to Ukrainian sources, Russia could be planning an attack from up to three directions, including again towards Kiev.
Käihkö: The West should step up arms production
Ilmari Käihkö considers it important that the West expands its arms aid to Ukraine quickly if Ukraine is to win the war. Prolonging the war would especially help Russia, because the national economy of Ukraine is collapsing. Russia’s economy is also shrinking as a result of the sanctions, but not at all as fast as the much smaller Ukraine’s.
Käihkö points out that Russia has long since accelerated, for example, its ammunition production to meet the needs of the war. In Ukraine, on the other hand, it has been feared that the West simply does not produce enough ammunition to defend Ukraine if the war drags on.
– We should also get the industry rolling, because it doesn’t happen in the blink of an eye. Decisions should have been made already so that they would have time to affect the next six months, he says.
At the same time, Russia is trying to destroy the Ukrainian industry with its devastating missile attacks on the infrastructure.
The situation of the war in Ukraine was discussed on 15.12. In Ylen’s Mäsa maila pahutu podcast.