The Israeli strikes targeted missile manufacturing facilities, missile sites and other Iranian military targets
25.10. 19:36•Updated 26.10. 8:39 am
The Middle East has already been waiting for three weeks to see when and what kind of retaliatory strike Israel will make against Iran. At the beginning of October, Iran fired 200 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Although the missile damage in Israel was insignificant, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised that his country will avenge the attack by Iran.
Israel’s response came on the night between Friday and Saturday, when it launched airstrikes on Iran.
Professor of Middle Eastern Studies Hannu Juusola The University of Helsinki emphasized on Saturday morning that very little is known about the situation so far and the situation can change quickly.
– Iran has admitted that there has been some destruction, but it will certainly not tell about the destruction in more detail. Iran usually does not admit its losses.
An Israeli military spokesman said later in the morning that the strikes targeted missile manufacturing facilities, missile sites and other Iranian military targets. According to Iran, the targets of the attacks were military bases in the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran.
– If you think about the risk of escalation, it is in a way the least bad of the bad alternatives, Juusola states.
How will Iran respond?
Israel’s early morning attack seems very limited, and Iran, on the other hand, has emphasized minor damages. According to Juusola, this indicates that Iran does not necessarily need to strike back with force.
– From Iran’s point of view, it is essential that Israel’s attacks were not directed against the nuclear weapons program or the oil refining industry, Juusola states.
– Due to these reasons, it is very possible that Iran will not strike back, he continues.
Previously The New York Times magazine said Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were planning up to a thousand ballistic missile strikes on Israel in retaliation. The counterattack would therefore be five times the size of the April attack.
This is what was revealed about the attack plan
Israel’s counterattack was mixed by what was revealed last Saturday data leakage. Two documents were published on the pro-Iranian Telegram channel, which reportedly contained information from the US Department of Defense Pentagon about Israel’s preparations for an attack on Iran.
Revealed documents say, based on satellite images, that the Israeli Air Force prepared 16 Golden Horizon missiles and 40 Rocks missiles for use.
The range of the missiles is thousands of kilometers when launched from an F-15 fighter, which means they reach from Israel to Iran. Their reinforced warheads are believed to be capable of destroying a concrete bunker dug into the ground.
Rocks missiles were possibly used as early as April, when Israel last carried out a limited strike on Iran.
The Times: The leak delayed the strike
Israel has had to change its plans because of the leak, said the British The Times magazine told yesterday.
According to the newspaper, the Israeli Air Force must practice the changed plan again before it could be implemented.
The Israeli armed forces feared that with the leak, the Iranians would be able to deduce the methods of operation used by Israel in its attacks and prepare for them.
For Democrats, retaliation is a tricky thing
In the United States, Israel’s revenge attack is a difficult issue, at least for the Democrats in power and preparing for the elections. The Middle Eastern population living in the United States has traditionally supported the Democrats.
The United States supports Israel’s leadership and provides the country with arms. A strong strike on Iran could turn some voters against the Democrats. In a tight election situation, it could be fatal for the Democratic candidate Terrible for Harris.
For this reason, it is assumed in the United States that the Democratic leadership at least tried to pressure Israel to carry out its attack only after the elections, says Juusola. He also considers it possible that behind the leak are parties supporting the Democrats who wanted to delay the Israeli attack.
– The type of parties who fear that Israel’s actions will worsen the regional situation […] and perhaps also think that they will potentially make it difficult for the Democrats’ election campaign.
Edited on October 26, 2024 at 4:14: The story has been updated with regard to the title, intro and body text after Israel started airstrikes on Iran.
Edited on October 26, 2024 at 8:39 a.m.: The story has been updated throughout with a fresh interview with Hannu Juusola.