Finland’s Defense Minister: ‘Russians only respect force’

By launching a war on the shores of the Black Sea, in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin set in motion, on February 24, a process on the shores of another sea: the Baltic. This process is that of the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, two countries which share a long common history with Russia – and which thus renounce their “historical neutrality”. The geopolitical consequence of their decision is terrible for Moscow. And can be summed up by this formula: once considered a “Soviet lake”, the Baltic becomes a western sea.

Still poorly measured in the rest of Europe, the joining of the two applicants represents a major strategic development. With Stockholm and Helsinki in NATO, Putin has already lost the game. There is no way Moscow can dominate the region, or even exist there other than through guerrilla operations, such as the recent gas pipeline sabotage. It would be enough to mine the Gulf of Finland to prevent the Russian fleet from reaching Saint Petersburg. And the Russian naval base in Kaliningrad would not survive three days in the event of war. Because Sweden and Finland have strong, high-tech and modern armies.

As part of a long investigation devoted to the “monumental strategic defeat of Vladimir Putin in the Baltic Sea”, L’Express met, in Helsinki, the Finnish Minister of Defense. Who received us around the long meeting table from where Marshal-President Mannerheim – the “Finnish De Gaulle” – conducted operations during the famous “Winter War” (1939-1940) during which the Finns heroically decimated the Red Army. Interview.

L’Express: What does joining NATO mean to you?

Antti Kaikkonen: Finland has always taken defense issues seriously, including after the Cold War. Many countries then reduced their defense budgets and abolished military service. Not us. With 280,000 soldiers, powerful artillery, modern air force and significant cyber capabilities, our army is one of the strongest in Europe. The accession of Sweden and Finland will strengthen NATO. And reciprocally. We also bring a state of mind, because our will to defend ourselves is very strong. It’s a feeling that runs through all of society,

Why didn’t you let your guard down at the end of the Cold War?

We know our great eastern neighbor well. We thought it would be wise not to dismantle our defense. Just in case…

How would you react in the event of Russian aggression?

Our deterrence is made so that such a scenario does not occur. At the moment, the Russians are busy in Ukraine. Several of their regiments usually positioned at our borders have gone there. So it’s pretty quiet in our area.

What lessons can be drawn from the war in Ukraine?

That war is not just hybrid or cyber. There is also traditional warfare. We are well prepared to respond.

You know the Russians well. How should we deal with them?

The first thing is that they only respect strength. The other is that their logic is not ours. What seems reasonable to us is not necessarily so to them. Declaring war on Europe in 2022 makes no sense to us. For them, yes.

Are the Baltic countries NATO’s weak point?

They were right to join NATO in 2004. Attacking an Alliance country represents too great a risk for Russia. Within the framework of our participation in NATO, we will be prepared to fight to defend the Baltic countries. Or any other country of the Organization.

Do you think we have to be careful “not to humiliate Russia”?

I see where you want to take me… Last winter, I hoped that European diplomacy would prevail. It did not work. So here we are at the beginning of a very long new cold war. The violation of international law committed by Russia is too serious and profound to be resolved in a few months. Moscow’s relations with the EU and NATO will be bad for a very long time. Of course, a ceasefire, negotiations and peace would have to be achieved. But I don’t see that happening now. The war will not end in 2022. It will last.

Has Vladimir Putin already lost the Baltic Sea?

It is clear that the balance of power there today is favorable to NATO.

TWO MAPS TO UNDERSTAND:

1. THE WINTER WAR.

In November 1939, Stalin decided to invade Finland. It’s the start of the Winter War. Until March 1940, this caused more than 125,000 deaths and 325,000 injuries on the Soviet side, six times less among the Finns (20,000 deaths, 43,000 injuries), much more agile on their cross-country skis in the snowy forests. . Despite everything, the USSR definitively annexed Karelia in 1944 (one tenth of Finnish territory) which it had occupied since 1940.

2. THE “SOVIET LAKE”

During the Cold War (1945-1991), most of the Baltic Sea was controlled by the USSR, and its satellites (Poland and the GDR). The other countries around the Baltic are Sweden and Finland – two neutral countries – as well as Denmark and West Germany.