For months, Russian operations as part of their hybrid war have been increasing, particularly against submarine cables. The latest incident dates from Wednesday December 25: an underwater cable connecting Estonia to Finland was damaged, causing an internet outage. Finnish authorities suspect a Russian tanker sailing off the Finnish coast of being responsible. The ship, the Eagle S, which is said to be part of this fleet nicknamed the Russian ghost fleet, was also boarded on Thursday December 26 by the Finnish authorities. Interview with Maxime Lebrun, deputy director of the research and analysis branch at the European Center of Excellence against Hybrid Threats (Hybrid Threats CoE), based in Helsinki, Finland.
5 mins
RFI : Are you surprised by the increase in this type of incident ?
Maxime Lebrun: I am not surprised by the proliferation of this type of malicious act, like here off the Finlanddue in particular to what we call Russian ghost fleet. I think it’s important to remember what this Russian ghost fleet is. There are around a hundred dilapidated cargo ships, that is to say more than 15 or 20 years old, with very non-transparent owners. Ownership arrangements are most often made through shell companies, which operate under a less-than-observant flag. For example, the Eagle S sails under a Cook Islands flag. It is one of the examples of the ships of this Russian ghost fleet which is mainly used to circumvent Western sanctions imposed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There Russia uses this ghost fleet to continue to sell its hydrocarbon production to its usual customers, for example India. It is therefore a vital tool for keeping the Russian economy afloat.
But this fleet is also used for this type of malicious act ?
This is what we feared and this is what the Finnish police will be responsible for clarifying. These types of ships, which often sail without their transponder, in disregard of international regulations, can be used as platforms to carry out unspeakable actions. This is for example the case in the Arctic, where many ships of this Russian ghost fleet leave from Murmansk. And in this extremely militarily strategic zone, that can be an element of concern.
Why the Arctic in particular ?
The Norwegians and Danes are monitoring what is happening in Murmansk very closely. This is extremely important to highlight because a lot of things are happening around Svalbard in Norway too, because there is a whole fishing area that has been opened recently in the north of this archipelago. There are a lot of boats from this Russian ghost fleet that fish there or use this route to sell their hydrocarbons. But there, precisely, in this militarily super sensitive region, we really have to ask ourselves the question of how these boats can be used such as sabotage, espionage, reconnaissance or special forces boarding platforms. We can think of many things. Hence the importance of maritime surveillance which must be increased by all coastal States, in particular radar surveillance and sonar surveillance. Because if the transponders are turned off, you have to be able to trace them differently. This is perhaps the subject that could prove to be the most difficult in the coming months, if we put it in conjunction with Russian strategic military interests in the Arctic.
How can we fight against these ghost ships ?
We can fight for example, as the Finnish police and the Finnish coast guard have just done, by boarding the ship, catching it in the act as much as possible. It’s about documenting, addressing, investigating, communicating about the investigation too, because strategic communication is very important. It is extremely important to show that the authorities can carry out their investigation in the best conditions, with all the time and resources they need. So we have to invest resources, devote time to the investigation to clearly establish responsibilities.
What can be the sanctions if these investigations are successful? ?
I am not an expert in international maritime law. But ship captains bear responsibility for the behavior of their ship. There may be criminal consequences for individuals. There may also be more sanctions on the company that charters these ships. So there is a whole range of possible sanctions which are opened by police investigations, the conclusions of which must stand before the courts of justice.
These destructions of submarine cables are very expensive. Can the companies that charter these cargo ships be ordered to pay repair costs, for example?
This is entirely possible following a complete legal cycle. Hence the importance of establishing the facts correctly.
You were talking about a hundred ghost ships. Does this mean that the entire globe is under threat?
Yes, the whole globe is affected. For example, these ships are not allowed to enter European Union ports. There have also been refusals to ship in the United States as well. But this fleet, which is used in particular to sell hydrocarbons, is a global problem. You have to go through the Strait of Gibraltar, then through the Suez Canal, to then arrive in the Indian Ocean. So it’s a global problem, and we remember very well the economic consequences caused by the blockage of the Suez Canal a few years ago for example, when a boat suffered damage. All world traffic had to be diverted. So, one could imagine that if one of these boats from the Russian ghost fleet were to have a breakdown in the middle of this canal, the problem would be extremely complex to resolve and very expensive too.
Also readSubmarine cables: a geopolitical battle to watch