According to a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute, Finland has stockpiles of assault rifles that could be given to Ukraine. Among the sanctions on Russia is also an economic “nuclear option.” Read here what it’s all about.
The war started by Russia has been condemned in harsh words. In this case, we will look at what the West is prepared to do to help Ukraine militarily and what kind of sanctions are being considered against Russia.
Is Ukraine receiving military assistance from the West?
No country is currently sending troops to help Ukraine.
Different countries are thinking individually about what kind of additional aid will be given to Ukraine. Ukraine is likely to be provided with various defense materials, such as weapons, and intelligence. It is also possible that there are Western trainers and medical experts in western Ukraine, says a leading researcher Charly Salonius-Pasternak About the Foreign Policy Institute.
Ukraine receives a lot of political and diplomatic support, but no country has announced that it will send troops to support Ukraine in the fighting. Not the United States either. However, it may, for example, send individual advisers.
– Defense equipment can be sold or given, but the reality is probably that very few countries are ready to leave the military to support a small country in the face of a large nuclear-armed state, Salonius-Pasternak says.
Secretary General of the NATO Alliance Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday that NATO is not sending troops to Ukraine, but is activating them in Eastern Europe.
Is Ukraine preparing for a long war against Russia?
Ukraine has indicated that it is preparing for a possible long guerrilla war against Russia.
Military assistance has been provided for a long time, since Russia illegally took over the Crimean peninsula in 2014, and the war in eastern Ukraine began.
According to a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute, preparations have also been made for the beginning and prolongation of the new war. Ukraine has indicated that it is ready to fight for a long time.
– That is ultimately the decision of Ukraine’s political leadership. Just as during World War II, it was the decision of Finland’s political leadership how long the defense war against Russia continued.
How is Finland helping Ukraine?
Finland is ready to support Ukraine financially. Earlier this week, the European Union decided to provide more than EUR 1 billion in aid to Ukraine. Finland is not providing actual arms assistance to Ukraine.
Minister of Defense Antti Kaikkonen (Central) estimates on Thursday that Estonia’s project to send field cannons to Ukraine could move forward. The Netherlands is also supplying material purchased from Finland to Ukraine. In addition, Finland provides humanitarian aid.
However, Finland is not providing Ukraine with, for example, assault rifles in stock purchased from China, although the researcher said it could now be considered.
– Finland does not need these weapons itself. They could be given easily, as Finland could even have to pay for their destruction later, Salonius-Pasternak says.
Finland also has cyber expertise that could help protect the computer networks of Ukraine’s nuclear facilities, for example, he estimates.
What financial sanctions are being decided on against Russia?
The launch of the attack means that new economic sanctions against Russia are coming.
The European Council of EU leaders will meet this Thursday evening to discuss sanctions on Russia.
Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK) Petri Vuorion in the past, previous sanctions have been small and “a tougher arsenal remained in the toolbox”. Vuorio works as a director at EK.
– The drastic measures aimed at influencing Russia are: finance, people and export restrictions, he sums up.
In practice, this means limiting the scope for action by Russian banks and the Russian administration.
Do sanctions matter whether they change Putin’s actions?
The sanctions will have an impact on the Russian economy, but it is questionable whether they will affect Vladimir Putin’s actions.
What matters most in economic sanctions is what the United States and the European Union decide.
– When sanctions are imposed on the front of the West, they will feel genuinely felt in the Russian economy, says Petri Vuorio of the Confederation of Finnish Industries.
The exclusion of the Russian banking system from SWIFT has been on the table for a long time. What is SWIFT?
SWIFT is a system that allows banks to handle payment transactions internationally.
Countries like Russia are not involved in SWIFT, but Russian banks are, and could also be excluded from the system as part of sanctions. If all Russian banks and payment institutions were to be shut down from SWIFT, in practice this would mean that money flows across Russian borders would end as we currently know them.
Leading expert in the financial sector Mika Linna recalls, however, that this would not paralyze Russia’s internal payment transactions, as the country has its own internal systems. Attempts could be made to arrange cross-border payments in Russia in alternative ways, such as fax and telephone.
How hard would it be to use a “SWIFT gun”?
The exact effects are difficult to predict, but the scale is clear: the closure of banks from SWIFT would be one of the most severe, if not the most severe, forms of economic sanctions, and has been referred to as a “nuclear option” for sanctions.
The nuclear weapon parable comes from the fact that pulling out of the SWIFT plug would not be a means of sanctions against those in power, for example, or those in key roles in the Russian invasion, but would categorically freeze cross-border payments.
However, making cross-border payment transactions more difficult is a double-edged sword.
– It would be difficult in both directions. It would make it more difficult for Russian companies to make payments to the EU and Finland, for example, or then to Finnish companies for payments to Russia, says Mika Linna of the Financial Sector.
Again, the SWIFT solution would be a nuclear option: it is difficult to predict how much destruction will come and to whom. Even weapon triggers may not be immune to its effects.
If Russia were excluded from SWIFT, could Putin or the Russian elite run out of money?
Russia has amassed foreign exchange reserves and reduced its dependence on the West, and funds have been repatriated from abroad.
In the short term, it is difficult to see Russia running out of money. Russia has its own central bank and currency that will allow Russia to keep the wheels of its own economy running.
However, other forms of sanctions can be used, for example, to freeze the funds of the Russian elite abroad, but this is not directly affected by the exclusion from the SWIFT system.
Fixed at 19.57: There was a typo in the passage concerning the conquest of Crimea. Russia illegally occupied the region in 2014.
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