No more polls on the European elections can be published since Friday midnight. We must wait for the results of this Sunday’s vote to know if the trends were correct. A look back at the latest estimates.
The campaign is officially over and the European elections take place this Sunday June 9. Since Friday at midnight and until the end of the vote, i.e. the closing of polling stations, candidates no longer have the right to campaign. After spending weeks defending their project, they must now let voters mature their thoughts and decide on their vote. In fact, any new information likely to influence the vote of voters, such as opinion polls, no longer has the right to be disseminated, but it is possible to recall the trends which emerged during the campaign .
Dozens of polls were published during the campaign, but the last ones were released on Friday June 7 before midnight, the date of the start of the reserve period which precedes the vote. Until this date, polls on the results of the European elections carried out by theIfop for Le Figaro, LCI and Sud Radio, by Harris Interactive for Challenges, M6 and RTL or byIpsos with Le Monde were banking on a victory for Jordan Bardella, whom they credited with a third of the voting intentions and more than 15 points ahead of the candidate in second position: Valérie Hayer. If the estimates prove correct at the end of the election, the National Rally’s score will be historic and the defeat all the heavier for the presidential camp.
The polls for the European elections brought out two other names to complete the leading trio: Valérie Hayer and Raphaël Glucksmann who were neck and neck with less than two points difference, still leaving uncertainty over the order of arrived on the evening of June 9. All the other candidates were credited with less than 10% of voting intentions, but the rebellious Manon Aubry stood out in the last days of the campaign by making a breakthrough to 9%. After her, three of the main national parties were given in a pocket handkerchief with more or less chances of being elected and all the others below the threshold of 5% necessary to join the European Parliament.
European polls
Results of polls on the 2024 European elections: the compiler
From May 2023 until Friday June 7, 2024, we have compiled in a graph the results of the main polls on the 2024 European elections. Very clear domination of the National Rally, fall of the Renaissance list, breakthrough of a left-wing list … A look back at the trends and dynamics that were observed before the elections:
Polls favorable to Bardella’s RN…
The far-right party took the lead from the first polls on the European elections. The flame party was never caught up by its competitors and it stabilized above the 30% mark from April, reaching 34% of voting intentions in certain studies signed Odoxa for Public Senate and Ifop for Le Figaro.
…and catastrophic for Valérie Hayer and the majority
Unlike the National Rally, the presidential majority has rather lost points over the months in the polls of all institutes. At the end of the campaign, Valérie Hayer appeared more than fifteen points behind Jordan Bardella with an average of 15% of voting intentions, compared to more than 20% at the start of the campaign.
A very clear breakthrough from the left
After the explosion of Nupes, four left-wing lists took part in the European elections. But one list emerged as the third force in the polls: that of Raphaël Glucksmann for the PS and Place publique. Part of the same pack as the others, she soared to reach between 14% of voting intentions.
From LFI to Reconquest, four lists neck and neck
Among the other left-wing lists, however, none stood out, all were given less than 10% of voting intentions in the polls alongside the Les Républicains list of François-Xavier Bellamy and that of Reconquête de Marion Marshal. The rebellious Manon Aubry, however, appeared at the head of the pack just ahead of the traditional right candidate, with between 7 and 9% of voting intentions.
Marion Maréchal of the zemmourists and Marie Toussaint of the ecologists were a little behind, between 5 and 7%. The two candidates have flirted several times with the 5M threshold below which a list cannot have elected representatives. The head of the list was even given below.
The communists and the other lists far behind
At the back of the pack, it was the list of the French Communist Party represented by Léon Deffontaines which brought up the rear of the eight main parties in the polls. He was in a very bad position, because below the threshold of 5% of voting intentions, between 2 and 3%. The 30 other candidate lists for the European elections were also given with scores below the threshold.
Projections in the European Parliament: how many seats per party?
The composition of the European Parliament and the balance of power between the different parties will depend on the results of the European elections. 81 seats in the hemicycle are reserved for French elected officials and they will be distributed proportionally to each force which obtains at least 5% of votes according to their score in the ballot boxes. The party that won the elections will thus have more seats than the others.
The trends observed in the polls published until Friday June 7 granted the greatest number of seats to the National Rally with between 25 and 30 elected, i.e. more than the 18 elected during the last election. Conversely, the presidential camp was allocated fewer seats, going from 23 elected officials to 17 or 15 according to projections.
On the left, the balances remained approximately the same compared to the current composition, as for the right of the Republicans. These parties currently have between 6 and 12 places in Parliament. But the polls also envisaged a slight upheaval with the possible arrival of the Reconquest party in the hemicycle, which was credited with a small handful of seats.
National results influence the distribution of forces at European level and the latter risks changing following the June election. The EPP group of the center right and the right (where the Republican elected representatives sit) remained the majority group and the Social Democratic group (where the PS elected representatives sit) retained the role of second force despite a small drop in the number of elected representatives. in the poll results of the 27 European countries. It was in the other groups that the changes were announced.
The Renew group, in which the presidential majority sits, lost around twenty seats to the rise of the radical and extreme right – in France but also in other countries – and fell to around 85 seats in the latest polls. At the same time, the conservative groups ID (which includes RN elected officials) and CRE (which should welcome those from Reconquest) gained seats, still according to forecasts.
As a reminder, polls and seat projections are only the image at a given time of trends concerning voting intentions and cannot be understood as predictions or reliable results.