Is the breakthrough of Russia on Ukrainian soil would it be at the dawn of a hypothetical ceasefire? With 240 km2 taken in March 2025, the increase in Russian forces in Ukraine has in any case slowed down for the 4th consecutive month, according to AFP analysis of data provided by The American Institute for the Study of War (Isw).
On Russian territory on the other hand, the forces of Moscow almost entirely chased the Ukrainians in the Koursk region. They are only present in a pocket of 80 km2, or 6 % of the maximum extent of the Ukrainian offensive in Russia. Begun in August 2024, it had reached around 1,300 km2 in two weeks.
This area of operation has narrowed over the following months. At the end of 2024, it covered less than 500 km2. And Mars was marked by an acceleration of the Russian counter-offensive, which brought the area from more than 400 km2 to around 80 km2, a reduction of 80 % in a month.
150 km2 won less in March than in February
In Ukraine, Russian forces took almost 150 km2 less in March than in February. Their advances slowed down every month since the peak at 725 km2 of November 2024, in the wake of important Russian movements on the front line since the previous summer.
Despite these slowdowns, the last 12 months have been marked by an increase in the Russian army in Ukraine, while the Ukrainians fail to regain ground. From April 2024 to March 2025, the Ukrainians resumed only 77 km2, when the Russians conquered 4,772 km2. The Russian forces therefore took 4,695 km2 net, or 0.78 % of the Ukrainian territory including Crimea and Donbass.
Conversely, from April 2023 to March 2024, the Ukrainians had generally picked up the field on the Russians. If the latter had conquered 1,300 km2, the Ukrainian forces had in parallel recovered 1,373 km2. AFP calculations are made from the files communicated daily by the ISW, which is based on the information disseminated by the two camps, and the analysis of satellite images.