“We are indeed in the presence of the Russian winter offensive”, estimates the expert and military historian Cédric Mas on his daily point, published this Sunday February 5 on the Mastodon network. After the capture of the town of Soledar by Russian forces in mid-January and small territorial gains in recent weeks, Vladimir Putin’s army is once again putting pressure on the northeastern area of the country, in the hope of making break the Ukrainian lock on Bakhmout. In its point of February 3, the French Ministry of Defense described a “general stability of the front” despite “intense fighting for the cities of Bakhmout and Vougledar”, respectively located in the northeast and southeast of Donetsk Oblast.
But the clashes have intensified in recent days. “The Russian offensive operations have therefore resumed everywhere, like a search for flaws in the Ukrainian defenses”, notes Cédric Mas. “Instead of a large concentrated operation, it is a series of attacks alternating in different sectors along the entire front from Zaporozhya on the banks of the Dnipro to Kupiansk in the North-East”, he analyzes . On Saturday evening, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that the situation was “complicating” on the front for his troops, especially in Bakhmout, a city he swore not to give up and to defend “as long as possible”.
Bakhmout-Nord at the heart of the clashes
Clashes in this city, largely destroyed and transformed into a fortress where both sides suffer heavy losses, are not new. The Russian army, supported by mercenaries from the Wagner group, has been trying to seize it since last summer, without success. But the capture of Soledar, 15 kilometers north of Bakhmout, and more recently the village of Blagodatné, have revived the clashes. “Fierce fighting is taking place in the northern neighborhoods for every street, every house, every stairwell,” said Sunday the boss of the Russian paramilitary group Wagner, Yevgueni Prigojine, whose men are on the front line.
North of the city, “the M03 and the H32 – the two main roads leading into the city for Ukrainian defense – are now likely to be threatened by direct fire” from Russian troops, establishes the latest intelligence report from the British defence, dated February 5. “Earlier in the week, Wagner’s paramilitary forces most likely seized a subsidiary road that connects Bakhmout to the town of Siversk”, adds the latter, noting that “while many alternative supply routes remain for the Ukrainian forces, Bakhmut is increasingly isolated”.
For the time being, “the northern lock is still holding” thanks to the defense of the village of “Krasna Hora. The Ukrainians are hanging on in the districts of Paraskoviivka and Vasyukivka”, specifies Cédric Mas. According to the observer, the forces of kyiv are nevertheless in difficulty in several cities in the south, and are fighting so that the road which leads to Bakhmout is not cut. “Holding Bakhmout as long as possible offers two advantages: fixing the Russian effort (Moscow puts everything into the fight) and wearing down the enemy. Preventing Putin from garnering a media and symbolic victory (we have seen the effect of the loss of Soledar in the informational sphere)”, he concludes.
Several offensives on the rest of the territory
In the north as in the south, the Russians are increasing their small offensives and continuing their slow work land nibbling. “In the northeast sector, Russian efforts are pushing the lines westward at Svatove and especially in front of Kreminna, loosening the Ukrainian grip on this position”, further establishes Cédric Mas. “The situation towards Kreminna is to be monitored because this point is the Russian pivot of the sector, and if the Ukrainians retreat it is all their prospects for future offensive maneuvers which would be compromised”, he judges. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed, without further details, that fighting and shelling continue in several points in the east of the country, where at least four civilians have been killed and eleven injured in the past 24 hours, according to the regional authorities.
Further south in the Donetsk region, fighting has been going on for more than a week around the town of Vougledar, particularly under pressure. During his speech on February 4, President Volodymyr Zelensky also mentioned that of Lyman. “The occupier is increasingly mobilizing its forces to break through our defence,” he added.
On the southwestern front line, “Russian forces continue to shell the city of Kherson”, points out the French Ministry of Defense. Located in the eponymous oblast, Kherson was retaken at the end of 2022 by the Ukrainian army after weeks of fighting, inflicting a humiliating defeat on Vladimir Putin. For several weeks, international observers have suspected the latter, with hundreds of thousands of reservists called up by the Kremlin in September and October, of preparing a new massive offensive around February 24, the first anniversary of the invasion.