Announced in the lead in five out of seven swing states in the latest polls, Donald Trump seems to be taking a lead in this American presidential election.
The American presidential election will take place on November 5, and a few hours before the vote, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are close in voting intentions. The Republican is slightly behind nationally according to the political analysis site 538from the American media ABC News, with 46.8% of potential votes against 48% for its competitor. According to the270towins aggregatorDonald Trump is given at 47.2%, against 48.4% for Kamala Harris.
But it is more interesting to look at the “swing states”, those states whose election results vary depending on the vote, oscillating over the years between the right and the left. They are called pivotal states, which will decide the outcome of the election. And in recent days, the Republican candidate has been in the lead in five out of seven swing states.
To convince Republican voters committed to his cause, but also voters who are still undecided, the Republican candidate for the White House is banking on a program well identified with the American right on the economic level or on the subject of immigration. He thus promised to work towards the relocation of businesses and industries to the United States and to launch “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants in history.
What results for Donald Trump?
If national polls give a slight advantage to the Democrat, by 1.2 pointsit is at the state level that the vote will be played out, particularly around 7 states which change political color from one election to another: the swing states. Donald Trump comes first in 5 of them, according to the compilation of polls carried out by RealClear Politics on November 5. Be careful, nothing is decided in his territories: Trump’s lead oscillates between +0.4 points (Wisconsin) and +2.8 percentage points (Arizona) when he is placed in the lead. The battle promises to be very close between the two candidates. Other territories are being closely scrutinized because they are high stakes, such as Florida which has 30 electors and in which Donald Trump is in the lead with 51.2% of voting intentions, compared to 44.7% for his Democratic competitor.
Latest updates
19:42 – Donald Trump on track to be elected according to a… young hippopotamus
From Thailand, the baby hippo star of social networks, Moo Deng, was invited to comment on the outcome of the American election. To do this, his caregivers offered him two bowls of fruit, one with the name of Donald Trump, the other with that of Kamala Harris. It was ultimately that of the Republican who seemed to have had the preference of the little hippopotamus. It remains to be seen whether the results will prove him right…
VIDEO: The polls put the US election on a knife-edge, but as Americans go to vote, Thailand’s superstar baby hippo Moo Deng has predicted former president Donald Trump will regain the White House pic.twitter.com/UTynJPR2Vw
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) November 5, 2024
18:36 – Donald Trump advantaged by the electoral system?
During his first election in 2016, Donald Trump had already benefited from a subtlety in the American electoral system which allowed him to win the vote even though Hillary Clinton had obtained more than two million votes more than him. In 2024, the phenomenon could happen again because in the United States, the presidential election is not a direct vote. The population votes for electors who are then responsible for voting for the president. However, over time, notes with the World Americanist François Vergniolle de Chantal, the basic electoral system was slightly overhauled and instead of each major voter voting for the candidate they represent, it became normal for the leading presidential candidate in the state to win all the electors of this state. Problem is, while rural and less populated states are favored by the electoral system, the Republican party is precisely dominant there. So, the fact that the Democrats win very populous states like California or New York does not help them since in the end it is the voters who determine the result. By winning many small or medium-sized states with fewer votes, the Republicans are more easily able to have their candidate elected to the presidency.
18:06 – After voting, Trump already claims to have won the election
After voting in Florida, this Tuesday, November 5, Republican candidate Donald Trump spoke to the press accompanied by his wife, Melania Trump, about the outcome of the vote: “I have confidence, we win with a lot of head start, I have the impression that the Republicans are there,” he said. “It was a very good campaign, I have no regrets, it was perhaps my best campaign,” he said. The former American president added that he did not want “any violence” in the event of defeat this evening.
17:37 – Donald Trump in a good position in the Swing states
Donald Trump seems to be widening an initial gap in the Swing states, these key states in the American presidential election. Indeed, the former President of the United States is in the lead in no less than five of these Swing states, out of the seven identified. Trump has a small cushion of safety in Arizona with a 2.8 point lead over Kamala Harris. On the other hand, in the other territories in which it is ahead at the moment, the gap is smaller, which could lead to a turnaround in the situation.
Trump’s lead oscillates between +0.4 points and +1.3 points over his Democratic competitor in Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. An advance synonymous with a real advantage for the former American real estate magnate, but not yet a guarantee of victory and a second term in the White House.
11:44 – “We will defeat (..) an evil Democratic system,” says Trump during his final meeting
Former President Donald Trump claimed at his final campaign rally that his real opponent in this election was not Vice President Kamala Harris but rather “an evil Democratic system.” “We will defeat the corrupt system in Washington. Because I’m not running against Kamala, I’m running against an evil Democratic system. These are evil people,” he said from Grand Rapids, Michigan.
“The silent majority is back and tomorrow you have to go out and vote… It’s been an incredible journey. And it’s very sad in a way, because, you know, we’ve done all this, and that’s the last one, but here’s the good news, all we were doing was putting ourselves in a position to win,” he said. He also continued his offenses against Kamala Harris. “Kamala Harris has a very low IQ, we don’t need people like that,” said the Republican who also attacked Joe Biden and other Democrats like Nancy Pelosi or Hilary Clinton.