In 1970, together with the developing technology, the accumulation of data about earthquakes, new theoretical models and laboratory experiments made it easier to detect the phenomena and mechanisms that are the precursors of an earthquake.
However, in the future, as scientists got better observations, they realized that they were often wrong, although they saw that the predictions were correct in places.
However, in the article published in the journal Science recently, a study was conducted based on data from thousands of GPS devices. According to these data, an early stage was detected, which is a precursor to large earthquakes. French scientists announced that they have detected an early stage that begins hours before a major earthquake occurs.
GPS DATA DETECTED BY ANALYSIS
The experts described this discovery in the paper published in the journal Science, and said they achieved it by analyzing very small displacements recorded by GPS.
These researchers believe that placing sensing networks around major faults could help find the holy grail.
Quentin Bletery, a seismologist at the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement at the University of the Cote d’Azur in France, described this discovery as a very important step forward.
Bletery and colleague Jean-Mathieu Nocquet analyzed a dataset held by the University of Nevada at Reno, focusing on GPS stations located near known earthquake zones of magnitude 7.0 or higher.
They examined the recorded positions of these stations in the 48 hours before each earthquake, comparing the actual motion with the expected motion caused by the earthquake.
RESEARCH REVEALED THAT GROUND MOVEMENT INTENSifies as the EARTHQUAKE TIME APPROACHES
Two experts’ research revealed that in the last two hours before an earthquake, ground motion usually begins to align with the expected motion and intensifies as the earthquake time approaches.
This pattern was not typically observed during randomly selected two-hour intervals when no earthquakes occurred. These findings made experts think that the movement observed in the last two hours could be a harbinger of earthquakes.
ARE WE ETERNALLY RAISED FROM THE RISK OF EARTHQUAKE?
The research, published in Science, provides valuable insight into the behavior of earthquakes and offers hope for future improvements in earthquake prediction, but seismologists still face significant challenges in translating this discovery into a reliable method of earthquake prediction.
The main reason for this difficulty is that current technological devices are not sensitive enough to detect this movement in advance.
Bletery, the owner of the study, estimates that current equipment should be about 50 times more sensitive to detect earthquake precursors.
While this lack of technology poses a major hurdle, Bletery believes the discovery is a crucial sign of progress. He stated that he challenges the idea that earthquakes are chaotic, momentary events caused by sudden fault movements.
“Unfortunately, IT CANNOT BE INTEGRATED FOR THE TIME”
As a result of the researches, it has been announced that this finding cannot be used in practice with the sensors in the existing technology.
It has been announced that now it remains to improve the technology and sensitivity of the sensors. Early warning devices developed against earthquakes in recent years are of great importance in this regard. These devices detect the energy discharge at the time of the earthquake and give an alarm to the user.
According to the statement made, unfortunately, this formula cannot be integrated into existing technologies for now.
WAS THE JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AN EXAMPLE OF THAT?
The researchers’ findings also raise intriguing questions.
When examining GPS data off the coast of Japan, experts discovered that the movements matched long before the 9.0 magnitude Tohoku-Oki earthquake that triggered a devastating tsunami in 2011.
It was observed that the movements followed a repeating cycle of approximately 3.6 hours. The reason for this cycle remains a mystery.