Monday January 13. The socialist epiphany, without frangipane or beans. Olivier Faure realizes that Eric Lombard is not François Bayrou. The promises of the Minister of the Economy, all “friends” that he is, all the former Rocardian socialists that he was, only bind those who believed in them; starting with this suspension of the pension reform. The one who decides is the Prime Minister. And there will therefore be neither suspension nor freezing of the Borne law. This is what Lombard and his counterpart, Minister of Health, Catherine Vautrin, rightly point out. The negotiations which had been taking place for two weeks turned into a fiasco. The first secretary may insist on the risk-taking which is that of the socialists, they who are now the only members of the NFP to accept the discussion while the ecologists and the communists have slammed the door, nothing works. They will have to make do with the few pledges given on the hospital budget, tax justice or even the non-elimination of 4000 positions in National Education. “We are not satisfied with rattles”, annoys Boris Vallaud in front of the plenipotentiaries. It is 6:30 p.m. that Monday, and the socialists are all in all preparing to censor the government, starting with the general policy speech that Bayrou is due to give the next day.
But at night, all cats are gray. Socialists too. The Prime Minister resumed the discussions. Does he fear the threat of censorship? When Olivier Faure leaves Matignon after long hours of final negotiations, he convinces himself of having regained the advantage. There are the victories that he considers “remarkable” already achieved and that Bayrou must list in his speech. There is also his joker. This card that he pulled from his sleeve at the last moment in front of the head of government: a social conference to correct the reform, from Friday January 17. He had Marylise Léon, the general secretary of the CFDT, on the phone a little earlier, who gave her agreement in principle. Sophie Binet, from the CGT, says she is hesitant but willing. Faure reveals his game: the much-maligned reform, and in particular the age measurement, would be put back for discussion by the social partners (which had not previously taken place). The resulting agreement would then be debated by parliamentarians and put to a vote. Consultations, parliamentary democracy… Sweet words to the ear of any self-respecting MoDem. Bayrou, although taken by surprise, seems seduced by the proposition.
The SMS from Castets
Tuesday January 14 in the early morning, Olivier Faure’s move did not hit home with his comrades. In an SMS revealed by ReleaseLucie Castets, the former NFP candidate in Matignon, warns the head of the roses: “I am of course interested in a social conference on pensions […] but is this worth non-censorship on a DPG? I don’t believe it. […] If you sell out the NFP, the left-wing electorate will be mad at you.” The CGT member Sophie Binet is also putting on the brakes. Especially since at the same time, the Prime Minister assures the parliamentarians of the Macronist central bloc that “there will be no suspension of the reform. “François Bayrou refuses the suspension of the pension reform. Who could have predicted it?” quips the ecologist Marine Tondelier who nevertheless negotiated a few days earlier with the government, now following in the footsteps of the Insoumis and censorship at all costs.
The socialists are walking on a tightrope, but Olivier Faure remains straight in his boots. At a group meeting on Tuesday morning, he assured that censorship has “a cost”. If Bayrou gives in to the social conference, the worm of repeal is in the fruit of the reform. “Censorship for censorship’s sake is the most politically comfortable,” justifies a PS executive. Tuesday morning, the socialist deputies decided, given the progress made, to no longer censor, either now during the general policy speech or later during the budgetary discussions.
Socialist divisions
However, within the party, the matter is far from being heard. At midday, gathered in the national office, the socialists display their divisions… Like a mini-revolt, led by supporters of Olivier Faure, including the deputy Arthur Delaporte, the national secretaries Sarah Kerriche and Clovis Cassan, or even the MEP and president of MJS Emma Rafowicz. Faces of the new socialist generation, they demand censorship. Their socialist elders, including Olivier Faure, supported, for once, by François Hollande, consider that “censorship has a political cost”. In recent days, the protests have cooled the ardor of many deputies. “We carry out greeting ceremonies, we see the mayors, we talk to people… A significant part of our electorate asks us not to censor, to find solutions for stability. We are not making this up, and we must take this into account”, explains PS deputy Laurent Baumel. “Stability for stability’s sake is useless,” says a socialist MP in favor of censorship.
4:30 p.m., the Prime Minister finishes his general policy speech. It’s a cold shower for Olivier Faure and his socialists. At the social conference followed by a parliamentary discussion, François Bayrou prefers the opening of a “construction site” for a period of three months. And if by chance the social partners were unable to reach an agreement, then the Borne reform would indeed be applied. “To say that is to give a right of veto to the employers,” chokes Laurent Baumel as he leaves the hemicycle. Worse still, some of the other commitments on positions in National Education in particular have disappeared from the head of government’s text. “We didn’t even get 10% of what we asked for. That raises questions about the solidity of ministerial commitments,” chokes up MP Philippe Brun, who has now become a supporter of censorship.
Censor immediately? Censor later? Not censor at all? The socialists no longer know which foot to dance on. On the set of the 20 Hours of TF1, Olivier Faure strives to say that “the account is not there”. “We will censor unless we have a clear answer on pensions,” he warns. Not all of his deputies are of his opinion, and still others are pleading to sanction the government. A closed-door meeting is held Wednesday morning between the parliamentarians at the rose.
Isolated, divided, here are the socialists trapped between a government which ended up rejecting them, and the Insoumis who, for their part, revel in the embarrassment of the PS. In front of a few journalists at the Assembly on Tuesday, Jean-Luc Mélenchon could not hide his joy. “Socialists are so grotesque […]. I am jubilant: Faure tried to impose his framework, but he failed. Meanwhile, we are collecting signatures (Editor’s note: for the presidential election)”, he gargled. And threatening the socialists to oppose a candidate to them in the next legislative elections: “All those who do not vote for censorship are leaving the NFP . We put an option on their constituency.” The socialists dreamed of emancipating themselves from their shackles, returning to square one.
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