Invited last year by Xi Jinping to have tea in Canton in the residence where the Chinese president’s father lived when he was governor of Guangdong province, Emmanuel Macron also wanted to invite his counterpart in a personal setting . After formal exchanges at the Elysée on Monday May 6, the two leaders will continue their discussions the next day in the Hautes-Pyrénées, for a lunch at the Col du Tourmalet, a legendary stage of the Tour de France, near a village where the beloved maternal grandmother of the French president.
By creating a more intimate atmosphere, the latter hopes to convey messages more easily to the leader of the second largest economic power in the world. But the challenge promises to be as exhausting as the ascent of Tourmalet. Determined to address the issue of the war in Ukraine, his top international priority, Emmanuel Macron wishes – once again – to encourage his counterpart to put pressure on Vladimir Putin to put an end to the conflict.
This was already his ambition in April 2023, during his last trip to Beijing: the French president then insisted that China could “play a major role” in “finding a path to peace” in Ukraine. Wishful thinking: Xi Jinping had just returned from a visit to Moscow, where he staged his proximity to Ukraine’s aggressor. “Right now, there are changes like no one has seen in a hundred years, and we are the ones leading them together,” he declared as he left a dinner with his host on Red Square. . Difficult to make it clearer. This time again, the Franco-Chinese meeting will only be a parenthesis. After his visit to Paris, Xi Jinping will visit Serbia and Hungary, two countries known for their pro-Russian positions. Then, after his European trip, the most authoritarian Chinese leader since Mao Tse-tung will welcome the head of the Kremlin in Beijing this month.
China has clearly chosen its side
Emmanuel Macron seems to be reproducing the same mistake as with Vladimir Putin in the past, by relying excessively on his ability to influence an autocrat thanks to his personal power of conviction. Even if we cannot blame the French president for putting the differences of views between Paris and Beijing on the table, is it not illusory to expect from these discussions at altitude any change on the part of Xi Jinping? ? Because if China claims to have a “neutral” position in this conflict, it has in reality clearly chosen its side. “It is naive to think that Beijing wants to put pressure on Moscow, it is not in its interest, says Chen Daoyin, former professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science. In the eyes of Xi Jinping, the war in Ukraine will weaken Western forces and will tip the strategic balance in favor of the “East”, which will promote the rise of China on the international scene. In short, summarizes this independent political analyst, the Chinese number one “wants Putin to win the war in Ukraine”. And a defeat for his “friend” would be a catastrophe.
Obsessed by its rivalry with America, China considers that it needs its Russian neighbor, armed with nuclear weapons and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, to shake up the international order dominated by America and its Western allies since the end of World War II, and protect its regime. “China and Russia have fundamentally the same strategic objectives and the same vision of the world: Beijing considers like Moscow that the war in Ukraine was provoked by the West – in particular due to the expansion of NATO – to weaken the Russia,” underlines Zhao Tong, researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And added: “The common fear of confrontation with the United States and its Western allies is the main driving force behind strengthening its cooperation with Russia.”
Paris underestimates the link between Beijing and Moscow
Emmanuel Macron intends to convince Xi Jinping that the war in Ukraine constitutes an existential threat for Europe and that it will not abandon its support for kyiv. Russia can only emerge weakened from a long conflict, so it would be in Beijing’s interest to make its partner listen to reason. “In reality, Xi Jinping has calculated his interests very well, and if he has to help someone, it will not be the European Union or the members of NATO,” comments Marc Julienne, director of the Asia center of the Ifri. More than two years after the start of the conflict, it is becoming increasingly clear that China has no intention of sacrificing its partnership with Russia. A partnership in his eyes much more important than its diplomatic relations with France, whose two countries are celebrating the 60th anniversary this year.
“Paris tends to underestimate the extent of the relationship between China and Russia,” adds Alice Ekman, analyst in charge of Asia and China at the European Union Institute for Security Studies. The war in Ukraine was a test: Beijing has not given up on Moscow, on the contrary, cooperation continues to strengthen, even if it costs it in terms of image with the European Union, sanctions…”
Begun after the fall of the Soviet Union, their cooperation accelerated after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, until the proclamation of their “boundless friendship” during the Beijing Winter Olympics. of 2022, a few weeks before Russian troops invade Ukraine. Far from distancing itself from its belligerent neighbor, Beijing, which has never condemned the Russian invasion, provides it with valuable diplomatic and economic support, preventing it from becoming a pariah on the international scene and de facto fueling its effort to war.
Exports to Russia of dual-use components
“Russia would have difficulty continuing its assault on Ukraine without the support of China,” Antony Blinken, the head of American diplomacy, recently scathed after a trip to China. In fact, bilateral trade between the two countries jumped 26% last year, to reach $240 billion. China has notably considerably increased its imports of hydrocarbons – taking advantage of falling prices – thus replenishing the Kremlin’s coffers. It has also accelerated its exports to its neighbor, allowing the Russian population to benefit from low-cost everyday consumer goods. But ties are also consolidating on the technological and military levels – the two countries regularly carry out joint maneuvers.
Certainly, China does not appear to have delivered lethal weapons to its neighbor, which would expose it to sanctions and unite Western countries against it. But it is accused by the United States of supplying more and more “dual-use” components, both civil and military, such as machine tools, microelectronics, technologies for manufacturing drones and technology. nitrocellulose used in the composition of gunpowder. For its part, the EU is also raising its voice: at the start of the year it sanctioned four Chinese companies on the grounds that they indirectly supported the war of aggression against Ukraine, by exporting electronic components intended for the military-complex. Russian industrialist.
How far will Beijing’s support for Moscow go? A Russian rout is unthinkable for the communist giant: it would endanger Putin’s regime, with the risk of a chaotic situation on the Chinese border or the advent of a pro-Western leader. According to several specialists, the Chinese president has an interest in ensuring that hostilities continue, despite their negative economic repercussions. This conflict, like that in Gaza, indeed mobilizes the attention of the United States and its allies – therefore less focused on the Middle Kingdom. “China does not seem to want to act to quickly end the conflict in Ukraine: it hopes for an erosion of Western support, and a Russia that would emerge stronger from the war. Beijing will continue to support Russia economically, diplomatically and technologically , considering that it is over time that victory will be decided,” believes Alice Ekman.
“Long period of simultaneous confrontation”
There is no point, in these conditions, banking on possible dissensions between the two Asian giants, fueled by Moscow’s growing dependence on Beijing, warns Alexander Gabuev, one of the world’s best experts on relations between the two countries. , in an article published last month in the journal Foreign Affairs. “On the contrary, the West must prepare for a long period of simultaneous confrontation with two immense powers equipped with nuclear weapons,” predicts the researcher.
In this context, what is the purpose of this visit for Xi Jinping? “China perceives us as a Western power; and therefore, among countries that are not priority or trusted partners. We are especially useful occasionally to, Beijing hopes, maintain differences within the European Union or with the United States”, notes sinologist Alice Ekman. China in fact interprets the French president’s speech on Europe’s “strategic autonomy” as a desire to distance itself from its main rival, America.
Faced with this situation, Emmanuel Macron invited Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, this Monday to give the discussions with Xi Jinping a European dimension, as he did during his trip to China last year. . The French president also coordinated with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a dinner in Paris on Thursday evening.
But the European clan remains divided in the face of Beijing. “If the EU acted collectively, it could put pressure on China, but the two main countries, Germany and France, each have their own national interests in mind and are incapable of forming a united front,” observes the political scientist Chinese Chen Daoyin. Olaf Scholz, whose automobile industry is very dependent on the Chinese market, was reluctant during his recent visit to Beijing to adopt too firm a tone, probably for fear of suffering reprisals.
Divergences on strategy towards China are not limited to the Franco-German couple. And Beijing understands this well. “By visiting Hungary and Serbia, the Chinese leader seeks to exploit growing internal divisions within Europe and strengthen the influence of European countries that do not fully share Western values. His visit to Serbia, to “the 25th anniversary of the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade by NATO, also testifies to its firm desire to counter American influence and to accentuate divisions within the Western camp”, points out Chinese researcher Zhao Tong.
Emmanuel Macron has even fewer levers as Europe is in a contradictory injunction with China. The communist giant certainly needs to sell off its excess production capacity in Europe, at a time when its growth is stalling and the American market is increasingly closing. But it will be difficult to get its help on Ukraine while imposing sanctions or launching an investigation into state subsidies granted to Chinese electric vehicles exported to the EU.
What can the French head of state get? A tangible result would be to convince China to participate in the “peace summit” organized by Switzerland in mid-June, intended to find a solution to the war in Ukraine. For the moment, China refuses to participate if the Russians are not present…
.