Beware of sleeping water. It is the advice that a loved one recently gave to Emmanuel Macron. The river is called Marine Le Pen. For some time, this faithful of the President of the Republic has been worried about the behavior of the Patroness of the RN group in the Assembly. “Be careful,” he warned. She has been too calm for several months, she will put a big hit soon. ” It is true that since the start of the school year, Marine Le Pen has tended to be forgotten. No vote of censorship against the Bayrou government during the budget episode, Richard Ferrand validated to the Constitutional Council thanks to the abstention of the RN, no particular reaction on the Betharram affair which rocked François Bayrou … This is starting to do a lot for the one who claims to be the first opponent of Emmanuel Macron. Timing question, too.
On March 31, the Paris Criminal Court will render its judgment in the case of party parliamentary assistants. Marine Le Pen risks an ineligibility sentence, accompanied by a provisional execution which would prevent her from candidate for the next presidential election. And until then wanted to be discreet. Change of foot in recent days. At discretion follows the diversion. A few days before the decision, the deputy for Pas-de-Calais again brandished the threat of censorship against the government. “There is an annoyance, I do not hide it from you, she says, Tuesday, March 25, from the Bourbon palace at the microphone of LCP. An annoyance because there is a multi-year energy program which must be signed by decree, which is a real shame (…), because I do not see anything coming on proportional, (…) and I find that time is long. It is that we are in total inertia and the last developments with regard to Algeria make me say that once again it will be absolutely nothing in this area. “
Opposition guarantees rather than sincerity
An annoyance which, she lets imply, could push her group to vote the censorship in the first opportunity. Even if it means getting fire. From the question of energy to proportional, including immigration, Marine Le Pen is wide to justify her threat of censorship. By forgetting, moreover, that she will need the left. In his own camp, we temper this new offensive. “For the threat to be effective, the PS would have to move …”, comments a deputy. And the hypothesis remains improbable, especially since the government is working to avoid all the texts which could federate against it an alliance of the left and the extreme right.
In reality, Marine Le Pen gives more wages of opposition than she brandished sincere patterns of censorship. “There is no political object that would justify censorship, confesses a loved one. The government does not offer an angle of attack, it is difficult to find a catch. Bayrou’s strategy of doing nothing works rather at the moment.” Faced with the judicial risk that it faces, the patron saint of frontist deputies also prefers to raise the voice to look away from its hypothetical political neutralization.
Articulate his judicial and political calendars
The crest line is tenuous. While each of his gestures is scrutinized in terms of her judicial calendar, Marine Le Pen tries to get rid of any instrumentalization trial. “She is at a crossroads, comments an interlocutor. She knows that she has no interest in offering the face of the escalation in this kind of moment, but she also knows that a moderate position will have a transactional cost with her electorate. She feels that she must not unbalance the balance too much, and acts accordingly.” In politics as in justice, it is often a question of arbitration.
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