Donald Trump’s return to the White House resulted in unexpected literary success. For several weeks, one of the most downloaded texts online is the Simple sabotage field manual (“Simple sabotage manual on the ground”), written by American intelligence services in 1944. Faced with the Trumpist compressor roller, his opponents thus seem to favor a discreet mutiny to a sacrificial heroism. A management to follow for the company? In any event, the economic world will be one of the referees of Trumpism and must therefore wonder about its choices. The challenge being to protect yourself in the short term, without giving up in the long term.
At this stage, several attitudes coexist in the face of this new deal. First there are the most alternative companies: those who do not hesitate to strengthen their partnerships with the new administration in place in Washington. Their objective: to continue to access American growth, to its public contracts and to try to escape revenge customs duties. Then come the bravest, who explicitly refuse to return to their diversity and inclusion policies despite the pressure of the Maga movement (Make America Great Again). This is the case, for example, large groups like Apple, McKinsey, Delta Airlines or Costco. Finally, there is discreet wait -and -see, which concerns the vast majority of companies, including in Europe.
How will these three groups – support, resistant or wait -and -see – evolve? We can only hope that the most enthusiastic supports will remain limited. Because Trumpism is not only an economic project. It causes a systematic destruction of diplomatic, social and ecological balances which, in the end, will only make losers. Moreover, the negative scholarships and inflationists who accumulate across the Atlantic should encourage a certain strategic prudence. Conversely, we cannot ask all companies to throw themselves into the arena by opposing the Trump administration head on, especially when they have shareholders, employees and customers in the United States. The new American power has shown that he did not hesitate to harass and sanction anyone who could interfere with his action. A risk of reprisals that no manager can underestimate when it comes to ensuring the sustainability of his business.
Finance a new age of the European Union
What to do then, especially for us, European companies? It is time to go from wait-and-by to long-termism. Prepare the next blow today and help Europe conquer its autonomy after decades of Pax Americaa. This implies, in the first place, to maintain the course towards a decarbonized and inclusive economy to combine energy sovereignty, social cohesion and attractiveness of talents. Europe is singular and that is precisely what makes its strength. But at the same time, we must also give ourselves the means, ringing and stumbling, to defend this peculiarity. Now today, Europe saves, a lot, but does not use it enough for itself. On the one hand, we have doubled the investment of our savings in American companies over the past four years. On the other, our start-ups and large champions struggle to find the funding they need on the continent and are forced to turn to the United States. Result: 18 % of CAC 40 shares are held across the Atlantic, this proportion only increased. This situation obviously limits our room for maneuver.
The solution is known, but struggles to find a political translation: the Union of Capital Markets. The time has come to go beyond national square meadows. In the same way as the humiliation of the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in the oval office was an electroshock in matters of European defense, the current trade war must lead us to reduce our economic dependence on the United States. It is a question of funding a new age of the European Union, faithful to our values and our interests. To support this vision is the best responses that can be given to Trumpism.
* Pascal Demurger is managing director of the Maif group and co -president of the Impact France movement.
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