New Delhi refuses that the war in Ukraine penalizes its population and assumes to develop its trade relations with Moscow. But seems skeptical of the ideological and strategic bloc that Russia invites him to join in the long term.
From our correspondent in Bangalore,
This is the last pole stretched this week by Moscow in New Delhi: to expatriate Indians in Russia to fill the lack of manpower linked to the war. ” Why not, India lacks agricultural land and Russia lacks workers », judge Nandan Unnikrishnan, expert at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, specialist in the post-Soviet space.
In 2022, India and Russia traded over €32 billion worth of goods. A record. This sum, two and a half times higher than in 2021, is largely linked to the sale of cheap oil to India. The two countries are now seeking to diversify their trade.
Like Indian diplomacy, Nandan Unnikrishnan assumes this rapprochement with the sworn enemy of the West. ” This conflict [en Ukraine] is the result of unresolved European conflicts since the USSR. India, a developing country, condemns it, but its people cannot pay the price. And then Europe does buy oil from the Russians indirectly via our refineries. »
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A rapprochement hampered by divergent economies
To facilitate these flourishing transactions and circumvent the dollar, Moscow and New Delhi have decided to move towards exchanges in rupees-rubles. India has opened several so-called “Vostro” accounts on its soil, which Russian banks can use to charge in rupees. To go further, the two countries want to harmonize their banking systems (Mir for Russia, and RuPay for India). ” It will take time, because the Russian and Indian economies work differently “says Nandan Unnikrishnan. The meetings are multiplying, but Moscow has expressed its impatience several times.
“ Our trade with Russia is limited compared to most European countries and needs to be developed “, declared in December the Indian Minister of Foreign Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, refusing to be taught a lesson to his country. ” The potential for India is enormous for the pharmaceutical sector or the cultivation of tea or phytosanitary products”, abounds Nandan Unnikrishnan.
New Delhi wary of Moscow’s geopolitical vision
But how close? The question has arisen even more strongly since the publication at the end of March of a new foreign policy strategy by Russia. The West is designated there as a ” existential threat » and in this crusade, Russia proposes to China and India to join it.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry vaguely acknowledged receipt. ” As the international landscape faces profound changes, we are ready to strengthen communication with Russia and India, to send a signal to the world », said his spokesman Mao Ning in early April.
For its part, India is embarrassed, in any case silent. ” In its foreign policy strategy, Russia has described China and India as its two allies “, explains in The Indian Express Shyam Saran, former diplomat and chairman of the National Security Advisory Council. ” However, China makes a link between Ukraine and Taiwan. To imagine India supporting such a bloc is wishful thinking. »
China and India clash along their Himalayan border. Latest incident: the publication in early March of new village names by Beijing… located in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. ” These invented names do not change the fact that these cities are part of our territory “, scolded New Delhi, judging that the military tension remained” very high “.
In reality, India can only worry about the Russia-China rapprochement. ” During his state visit in March, Xi Jinping promised Russia a “partnership without limits” with “no prohibited areas of cooperation””, recalls Shyam Saran. The former diplomat warns of ” Chinese influence extended to the point of making Russia a vassal and marginalizing India’s presence in Asia ” ensuing.
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India does not want a confrontation with the West
If the Hindu nationalists do not hesitate to criticize the countries of the West when they comment on internal affairs in India, there is no question for New Delhi of joining the triple alliance against the West and its ” pseudo-humanists and neoliberals wanted by Russia. ” Never India will adhere to such an aggressive discourse “says Nandan Unnikrishnan to explain the silence of New Delhi. Beyond the lexicon, India simply cannot turn its back on its major trading partners. In 2022, Europe and the United States alone accounted for more than 200 billion euros in trade. Seven times more than Russia.
If exchanges with Russia are experiencing a sharp increase, it is first of all that they have always been mainly due to the sale by Moscow of military equipment to the Indian army. However, recently, the India Air Force could only note the inability of Russia to honor its deliveries because of its commitment on the Ukrainian front.
” India cannot solve any problem without development and therefore will continue to trade with Russia in 2022 “says Nandan Unnikrishnan. As the Indian Presidency of the G20 has shown, described as ” fantastic by Moscow, New Delhi should not pledge the Western bloc either to international institutions.
To keep its independence, New Delhi nevertheless knows that it will have to distance itself in a subdued way from Moscow. The rivalry with China, the need to diversify its military-industrial complex forces it to turn to other countries, the West in the lead. The approaching 2024 general elections in India will finally focus the central government’s attention on domestic rather than international affairs.