Faced with the spectacle of Russian tanks, the one young people dancing in the bays of the European Parliament. Facing a single man, surrounded by mute generals, several leaders and citizens speaking freely from the podium. Faced with a warlike and backward-looking discourse, an ode to peace and to the future. For this May 9, “Victory Day” over Nazi Germany in Moscow and “Europe Day” in Strasbourg, two visions of the world clashed, exactly as Emmanuel Macron wished. “At home, the affirmation of the strength of liberal democracies and their plurality. In Moscow, the affirmation of a model of historical revisionism which sheds blood on Ukrainian soil”, sums up an adviser to the French president.
Two days after his investiture ceremony, the tenant of the Elysée Palace wanted to outline the continent’s roadmap for the next five years, in a major speech in Strasbourg. He intends to be the conductor of a European transformation made essential by the aggressiveness of Vladimir Putin. “In five years, Emmanuel Macron will have reached his term limit and his time in national politics will probably be up, underlines political scientist Olivier Costa, professor at the College of Europe. Like Mitterrand, like Chirac, he will want to leave his mark in the world. ‘History with an even greater focus on European and international issues.’
The President-in-Office of the Council of the EU must first manage the emergency. “Do everything so that Ukraine can hold on, and Russia never wins,” he insisted. Since the start of the war, the European Union has impressed with its unity and the power of its reaction. But after two and a half months of conflict, the European front is starting to crack: the Twenty-Seven are struggling to agree on an oil embargo against Russia, and national interests are resurfacing at the mercy of inflation rates.
Harmonize European positions and counter the American narrative
In Europe, two courses of action are emerging on Ukraine. “On the one hand, very hardliners, aligned with the United States, are campaigning for a complete Ukrainian military victory and a weakening of Russia,” notes Marie Dumoulin, director of the Greater Europe program at the European Council. for Foreign Relations. On the other hand, some believe that the solution to this war will not be military but will pass through a negotiated victory, which supposes keeping open the channels of discussion with Russia.” By resuming the dialogue with Vladimir Putin on May 3, Emmanuel Macron embodies this second path, that of the realists.
The French president, who has made European sovereignty his great project, does not see favorably the rhetorical escalation operated by the United States against Moscow and their growing influence in Europe. “In this war, political games appear, underlines Sébastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute. The United States, via Nancy Pelosi or Antony Blinken, went to kyiv and sent the majority of the weapons to Ukraine. .. Europe must come forward so as not to be diluted in an American-dominated Western camp.”
After the emergency of the war, Emmanuel Macron is already launching the construction site of a new European architecture. “When peace returns to the continent, we will have to build new balances of security”, projected the French head of state. Paris pays particular attention to the neighboring countries of the EU, likely to join the Union in a few years but in the front line against Moscow. “The president considers that it is urgent, in the context of the war in Ukraine, to anchor all these countries – Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia but also the Western Balkans – to the European family”, insists an adviser to the Elysée. Its response: the creation of a European political community, an entry gate to the EU allowing the development of partnerships with our neighbors who are candidates for membership.
“If Ukrainians are treated the same as the countries of Central and Eastern Europe were, and the countries of the Western Balkans are now, there is no reason for Ukraine to enter in the Union before 2040”, judges political scientist Olivier Costa. This accession process will be all the more complex for a country that will take years to rebuild.
Europe must secure its neighborhood
However, there is an urgent need to find a new model of coexistence with our neighbours. Russia and China are eyeing eastern Europe with interest, particularly the Balkans, and the war in Ukraine has confirmed the risk of destabilization in the region. “The current situation is an opportunity to bring these countries closer to our strategic sphere of influence, says Peter Grk, Secretary General of the Bled Strategic Forum and the Western Balkans. Without action on our part, this question will remain at the heart of Europe. : countries that do not share our values look at the region with a strategic eye and meddle in our affairs, our policies EU enlargement is not the problem, it is part of the solution .”
Before expanding, Europe must also become more efficient. The Covid-19 crises and the war in Ukraine have shown that it is capable of reacting quickly and strongly. It remains to engrave these evolutions in the texts. “France wants to introduce the right of legislative initiative in the European Parliament and launch a revision of the Charter of Fundamental Rights to include the right to abortion or the right to the environment”, details an adviser to Emmanuel Macron. . Reforms possible only by revising the European treaties, as confirmed by the French president on 9th May.
On this subject, Paris will have to organize; and climb heights: an hour after his speech, the French head of state received a missive from thirteen member states, mainly from northern and eastern Europe, speaking out against any change in the treaties. “Revising the treaties seems, each time, impossible, points out Olivier Costa. But if the Franco-German couple once again weighs with all its weight in this direction, it can convince the most reluctant. When Macron speaks of Europe to several speeds, he does it from a programmatic perspective but he also creates a balance of power: if you don’t want to do anything at twenty-seven, we will do it on our side, at twelve.”
Especially since the French president has seen the European planets align in recent months: in addition to his re-election, pro-European leaders have just come to power in Germany, Italy, Spain or the Netherlands. It remains for the conductor Macron to set his European plans to music.