Kamala Harris would have already lost. For what ? Because the polls place her tied with Trump: 47% of the vote each. Given the American electoral system, this amounts to a defeat. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by two points in the polls and… she lost. In 2020, Biden had four more than his opponent and… he won. In short, the candidate would need a 3-point lead to beat her opponent. Unless the pollsters are wrong…
Support from the Obamas, a double-edged sword
But a question already arises: did Kamala Harris fail her campaign? Initially, that is to say at the end of July, his task seemed insurmountable. It was about succeeding a very unpopular presidential candidate, Joe Biden, and leading a lightning campaign to win on November 5, in finished. However, barely entering the campaign, Harris makes a comeback and, in euphoria, overtakes his opponent. In mid-August, she triumphed at the Democratic Party convention. For a moment, she seems irresistible. But his television appearances are uneven. And the support of the Obama couple is double-edged. The presence of Barack and Michelle especially reminds us that despite her merits, Kamala Harris does not possess their talent.
Another question arises: in retrospect, was the choice of running mate Tim Walz really relevant? Sympathetic, the governor of Minnesota – a state won in advance by the Democrats – is perhaps not, deep down, so great. Choosing the hyperpopular governor of Pennsylvania would have been, according to some, more clever. Certainly, Josh Shapiro would have facilitated the essential Democratic victory in his own state, crucial because of its 19 major voters. Another regret: Kamala Harris does not seem to have made up for her lack of notoriety among Americans. And his message to the nation, summed up by the slogan “When you fight, you win”, does not make you dream.
Already known to everyone, Donald Trump hammers home basic and concrete messages: fighting immigration, improving purchasing power, putting “America first”. Nothing is more difficult, it is true, than confronting a candidate who insults, belches and lies, without his electorate ever holding it against him. Because a question arises: should we play on the same register as him – at the risk of being accused of being “hysterical” – or take the height – at the risk of being inaudible? An impossible dilemma in a polarized country where social networks are widening divisions and where “Hurricane Trump”, in people’s minds, is wreaking havoc.