A delegation of 1,000 people, President Isaac Herzog, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a slew of ministers. The casting of Israeli guests at the COP28 in Dubai, which opens on November 30, was a demonstration of force, as the ultimate proof of the solidity of the new ties between the United Arab Emirates and Israel, forged in the agreements of ‘Abraham of 2020.
But since the invitations to the conference on climate change were sent six months ago, war has entered regional diplomacy, and the time is no longer for celebrations. The fact remains: the Emirates have not officially withdrawn Netanyahu’s invitation to Dubai, despite the bombs on Gaza, despite the thousands of Palestinian deaths, despite the almost unanimous condemnations of the Arab-Muslim world. Almost unanimous because, in these dark hours, Israel can count on the discreet support of its new Emirati friends.
The Emirates prepare the future of Gaza
Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ), the all-powerful Emirati president, was the first Arab leader to call Netanyahu after the Hamas attacks, and to condemn the actions of the Palestinian organization. Better still, the United Arab Emirates went so far as to block any joint sanctions against Israel during the major Arab-Muslim summit in Riyadh on November 11, despite pressure from their neighbors in favor of a total blockade of the Jewish state. “It’s no surprise: if there is one country in the region that will stand alongside Israel for as long as possible, it is the United Arab Emirates,” said Michael Koplow, research director at Israel Policy. Forum, in New York. The main reason is the existence of very strong economic and military ties between these two countries. The second reason is that there is a history of poor relations between the Emirates and the Palestinian Authority, and that Abu Dhabi obviously does not support Hamas.”
In reality, the destruction of Hamas, an emanation of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose Islamism constitutes the number one enemy of the Gulf autocracies, would not displease the Emirates. Confident in Israeli military success, MBZ is already preparing the future of the Gaza Strip, by trying to place one of its trusted men in power there, the Gazan Mohammed Dahlan. Former head of security for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, he was expelled by Hamas in 2007 and has since lived in Abu Dhabi, where he serves as security adviser to MBZ. The perfect opportunity for the Emirates to gain influence in the region. “This is the whole dilemma of the United Arab Emirates,” explains Yoel Guzansky, Gulf specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “They want to both show their support for the Palestinians and crush Hamas. Behind the scenes, they tell us often enough that we must put an end to this terrorist organization for good…” This is why Abu Dhabi promised the construction of a field hospital in Gaza and to treat 1,000 Palestinian children on its territory. Without recalling his ambassador to Israel.
It remains to be seen how far, and until when, MBZ will push its double game.