This Monday, February 24, Friedrich Merz wakes up with every chance of becoming the next German Chancellor. The party he directs, the CDU, came first in the anticipated legislative elections this Sunday, February 23, with 28.6 % of the vote. And if the curator has yet to build his coalition, his coming to power will have consequences on the international and European scene. “Since his victory at the end of 2021, Olaf Scholz has been criticized for having failed to impose a clear direction in the foreign policy of his government. This has given the impression of a Germany in loss of international speed,” notes François Hublet, editor -in -chief of the chief of the chief of the European Union elections (Blue).
Some analyze Friedrich Merz’s victory as the opportunity for a rebirth of European leadership. From the evening of the victory of his party, the leader of the Conservatives called on his allies of the Old Continent to build an “autonomous European defense capacity” as an alternative to NATO in its current form. “For Armin Steinbach, holder of the Jean-Monnet Chair in HEC as well as guest teacher at the London School of Economics (LSE),” he leaves no doubt to appear as a major player at a European level What could correspond to the vision of Emmanuel Macron who has always called for a stronger Europe. “Until shadowing his French and Italian counterparts who compete for European hegemony?
Meloni, “the strong man” of Europe?
Since the victory of his party (Fratelli d’Italia) in 2022, Giorgia Meloni has been trying to present himself as “the strong man” of Europe. “With the weakening of the Franco-German couple, she understood that there was a shooting window”, decrypts at L’Express Lorenzo Castellani, history professor at Luiss Guido-Carli University. In November, the Brussels reference daily Politico The crown of the most influential personality title of the old continent. On the other side of the Alps, Emmanuel Macron, which is noted at his majority at the Palais-Bourbon, finds himself confined to foreign affairs, a domain in which he persists in shining. Even if it means making its European partners cringe, as at the Ukraine summit organized in Paris. An initiative, judged by the Italian executive, far too Franco-French.
In Germany, the press has moved that Olaf Scholz did not have the idea of the tenant of the Elysée. “With Friedrich Merz, the summit would have taken place in Berlin,” says an informed source. And the specialist in European issues François Hublet to abound: “In the Italo-Franco-German triangle, Merz could undoubtedly stand out as the central element.” Even the mediator. For those who do not yet know him, the probable future German Chancellor is a former MEP of the European People’s Party (PPE, Center right). In other words, the party of Ursula von der Leyen, with which he kept a certain proximity and which could give him the status of “Primus Inter Pares Among the leaders of the European Council “, formulates the European information site Euractiv.
Meloni and Merz, the tightrope walkers
Another asset in its sleeve: the Rhine is a biscard of the Christian Democratic Party (CDU), a training known for its historically Atlanticist positions-“much more than the French right”, specifies François Hublet. A political culture that could encourage him to adopt a posture of dialogue against Donald Trump. Especially since German interests are far from being disconnected from relations with Uncle Sam. In the first half of 2024, the United States dethroned Beijing by becoming the first trading partner in Germany. In addition, Berlin “depends on the United States for its military security”, pointed out the economist and political scientist Ernst Stetter in a publication of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation in late 2024. Shortly after the victory of the Republican billionaire, Friedrich Merz, a fervent defender of kyiv, was more discreet …
And yet, between Donald Trump and Friedrich Merz, the relationship started with bad foot. On the one hand, the cantor of the Maga movement (“Make America Great Again”) A ostensibly supported AFD, the German far -right party, the main rival of the CDU. On the other hand, in reverse of Giorgia Meloni, Friedrich Merz firmly condemned Donald Trump’s idea of transforming Gaza into the French Riviera. No doubt, therefore, the future German Chancellor will have to learn to play balancingists. Be both the friend-because the interests of his country command him-and the slayer-because the opinion curves oblige him-of the 47th president of the United States.
Towards a burst of European leadership?
Acrobatics has been exercised for a few weeks already its Italian counterpart. Donald Trump’s plan for Gaza? “Not to comment on him allows him both not to offend a part of the opinion without putting himself on the back Donald Trump”, decrypts Frédéric EnLL, geopolitologist specialist in the Middle East. Discussions from the White House tenant with Vladimir Putin on Ukraine? His Minister of Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani puts them into perspective, assuring that they will not conclude in a few days “, and deplores that the Elysée” agitates too hastily “by organizing a summit. This did not however prevent the tenant of the Palazzo Chigi from going there, even if … an hour late.
On the Ukrainian issue, this double game is reflected in Friedrich Merz and Giorgia Meloni in “Wait and See”, Observes the Italian professor at Luiss Guido-Carli University, Lorenzo Castellani. Problem: by waiting to see to act, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin phosphorent on the future of the wheat attic of Europe, obviously without taking into account the concerns of European countries. France being less dependent on the United States than its transalpine and German neighbors, Emmanuel Macron-who must meet this Monday the tenant of the White House-would have an additional room for maneuver to defend Ukrainian and European interests. Armin Steinbach confirms: “Meloni and Merz would be much more annoyed if Trump, who uses customs duties as a means of pressure, came to carry out his threats.” Diverding of interests that remind us that the future of Europe is also played in the corridors of Washington.
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