In less than six months, Europe has undergone two completely different shocks but which cannot leave it without reaction under penalty of being erased from history: on the one hand, the publication of the Draghi report which describes the dropping out of Europe and the threat of a “slow agony”, on the other, the break that Donald Trump operates between the two banks of the Atlantic.
These two shocks call Europe and France to an unprecedented burst since the post-war period. The Draghi report evokes at least four priorities whose budgetary translation is certainly heavy but which appear essential.
The first is research and innovation. The European financial effort is significantly lower than that of the United States (France has been capped at 2.2 % of GDP for more than twenty years, far from the 3 % target set in Lisbon). The gap is even more massive on the marketing of innovations: the United States represents 52 % of world venture capital, China 40 %, Europe 5 %!
The second priority is energy. The expensive dependence of Europe mines its competitiveness. Electricity is the key to a decarbon energy. Only nuclear is able to constitute the basis of production, to loosen the embrace by producing a decarbon, controlled, independent energy which will be ensured long -term competitiveness. Renewable, intermittent and unpredictable energies have their place as a minority complement but not as a nuclear substitute.
The third priority is linked to the increased requirement of sovereignty. This should lead to reducing the most critical dependencies. This certainly concerns strategic materials – we see the importance that Trump attaches to it – but also, critical technologies. Japan is making a massive effort to master the most advanced semiconductors, Europe will have to seriously think about it. We have talked a lot about artificial intelligence or quantum: we will have to check that we have really gathered the means to be in the race. Finally, 78 % of the purchases of defense equipment is made outside Europe. If we want to build an independent defense industry, European preference becomes an industrial and strategic imperative.
The fourth priority is risky funding (loans or capital). Banks no longer provide them, or less and less, and they lack in Europe. The Draghi report advocates the unification of the financial markets to increase its depth: why not? But that does not solve the problem resulting from the fact that European savings crosses the Atlantic in search of better yields or seeks the security of its investments in Europe. In France, real estate, life insurance in euros, the savings books that dominate. How can States act to direct this savings to actions – on the side and the unlisted (essential for start -ups) in particular – by limiting the risk for individuals who wish and favoring European actions? It is essential to allow innovation and productive investment to find their funding.
Trump inspires us a fifth priority by slamming the door with the nose with customs prices and various threats that could affect access to both advanced and dollar technologies. To find alternatives, let’s reinforce our partnerships in Europe and let’s get new partners out of Europe: Latin America with the thorny question of the Mercosur agreement, Nigeria, Congo, Ethiopia, South Africa or Kenya, ASEAN, India, now economic and strategic power. China is both an essential player and a “systemic” competitor; Let’s not be absent while remaining lucid and cautious. Partnerships are possible without ignoring possible American “threats”: we have seen it on civilian nuclear, we see it on the electric car and the batteries. It cannot be excluded that the United States and China find a commercial compromise. We should not be left “on the side of the road”.
Europe is at the crossroads, it must act, powerfully and quickly. France can bring together the most determined countries if itself is put in battle order and clearly chooses its priorities. Quickly ! Time is counted to us.
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