Extreme springs become more likely: “Dangerously hot”

Extreme springs become more likely Dangerously hot
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full screen A man tries to cool off during a heat wave in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil at the end of September. Photo: Bruna Prado/AP/TT

The spring has been unusually warm with temperatures above 40 degrees in South America.

Human influence on the climate has made it 100 times more likely to have such extreme heat when it is not summer, according to a new study.

Large areas of South America have experienced unusual heat during August and September.

Although it has been early spring, the temperature in some places in Brazil, Bolivia, Argentina and Paraguay has reached over 40 degrees. Many South American countries are also experiencing the warmest winter on record.

Increases the probability

Such extreme heat beyond the summer months in South America would have been “extremely unlikely” without human influence on the climate, according to the World Weather Attribution, which concludes that climate change has made the heat 100 times more likely.

The research network’s rapid analysis looked at the 10 hottest days in a row in an area that includes Paraguay, central Brazil and regions of Bolivia and Argentina where the heat was most extreme in August and September.

The naturally occurring weather phenomenon El Niño may have contributed to some extent, the researchers believe. But the biggest culprit is climate change – which made the heat wave at least 1.4 degrees warmer than it would have been without human influence, according to the analysis.

“Alarming”

“It is worrying that temperatures above 40 degrees in spring are becoming common in many parts of the world,” writes Izidine Pinto, researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, in a press release.

“That is the reality of our climate, which is rapidly getting warmer. We are now experiencing more and more dangerously hot days every year.”

If the world’s countries do not quickly reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases, which drive climate change, the spring heat will only become more intense, affecting vulnerable people and disrupting ecosystems, warns Izidine Pinto further.

FACT World Weather Attribution

World Weather Attribution is an international research network that analyzes the possible impact of climate change on extreme weather events such as storms, extreme rainfall, heat waves, cold spells and droughts.

The analyzes are done quickly and have not been reviewed by other researchers according to the “peer review” system. But the WWA researchers use scientifically recognized methods and not infrequently have their studies reviewed and published in journals at later times.

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