Requirements lists, harsh statements and tough negotiations – Turkey has been clear that Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO membership is conditional. And without a yes from Turkey, there will be no entry, because it requires all NATO countries to agree.
But Finland is likely to stay by Sweden’s side, and in the end it will probably be a compromise with Turkey. That is the opinion of Tarja Cronberg, who is affiliated with Stockholm’s International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).
Do not want to be without Sweden
– It is clear that Finland has very strong support for the NATO application and it is not in any way conditioned by Sweden also applying, but I think that many in Finland – not least in government and parliament, experience it as a very special situation about Finland agrees and not Sweden.
She believes that it would be worrying for Finland if Sweden were not involved, given the close defense co-operation between the countries and that it is more uncertain how other NATO countries would act in the event of an attack on Finland.
– There is no guarantee of any real effort.
The view that Sweden and Finland will not go their separate ways is shared by the experienced diplomat Pertti Torstila, former Finland’s Swedish Ambassador. He believes that Turkey’s move against Sweden could be a way to try so split.
– Turkey may be trying to put the most pressure on Sweden and strike a wedge between us.
He believes that the United States will unleash the knot that is holding back the NATO entry.
– I am convinced that the United States will not sit in the back seat and leave the question to us. This is not the first time Turkey has been difficult for NATO, says Torstila.
“Would be possible”
Tomas Ries, associate professor of war science at the Swedish National Defense College, says that it is “very unlikely” that Finland will take a fast track.
– It would be possible because Finland does not have problems with Turkey, but from what I understand, Finland values the relationship with Sweden too much.
Tomas Ries himself, who has long advocated Finland joining NATO, is of a different opinion. He believes that NATO membership is much more important for Finland.
– For Finland, NATO membership is existential, but Sweden is on “second floor” and is not as militarily exposed.