If Minister of Justice Morgan Johansson (S) is overthrown in Tuesday’s no-confidence vote, the Prime Minister and the entire government will resign, Magdalena Andersson (S) announced on Thursday.
But Stig-Björn Ljunggren, political scientist and political editor at the Social Democratic Southeast, now believes that it is likely that the Prime Minister will fire Morgan Johansson already before Tuesday, which Swedish daily newspaper previously reported.
– He will probably soon realize the situation himself that he is the one who has to pack the boxes. Kakabaveh can also clean, she will not return to the Riksdag. If Magdalena lets Morgan go, she will get bail until the election, says Stig-Björn Ljunggren.
The situation is even – The Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals and Sweden Democrats collect 174 of the 175 seats required to overthrow the minister. Everything can thus depend on whether the political savage Amineh Kakabaveh votes for or against the Minister of Justice.
At the same time, KD leader Ebba Busch announced during Sunday’s party leader debate that there will be no more no-confidence motions before the election if Magdalena Andersson agrees to “release” Morgan Johansson.
Marja Lemne, senior lecturer in political science at Södertörn University, was surprised by the Prime Minister’s reaction to the offer and she also believes that there is a risk that Morgan Johansson will resign before Tuesday.
– What I understood was that she saw an opening with the message from Busch. As I see it, there are now several scenarios in Swedish politics over the next 24 hours. Plan A is to agree with Kakabaveh. However, it is still likely that Kakabaveh will be involved and vote against, she says.
Next big question is whether Magdalena Andersson will take seriously her threat that the entire government will resign if Morgan Johansson is forced to leave, says Marja Lemne.
– Like Magdalena Andersson then asking a cabinet question was very surprising. But another solution is that Morgan Johansson can be deposed by the Riksdag. Kakabaveh can also be absent or on sick leave, she says.
Historically, the ministers concerned usually withdraw and choose to resign. She cites examples like Anders Ygeman after the scandal at the Swedish Transport Agency and that Anna-Greta Leijon resigned after the Ebbe Carlsson affair.
– Morgan Johansson should back down so as not to make a fuss in the Riksdag, says Marja Lemne.
Read more:
This has happened: The mistrust of Morgan Johansson
Kakabaveh ready to trap the minister: “S has not fulfilled what they promised me”