Ukraine has asked the West for modern weapons in case of another major attack by Russia. Experts see signs of some kind of new phase in the war.
Over the weekend, Russia again carried out devastating missile attacks on Ukraine. Ukraine has warned that Russia is preparing another major attack.
The experts who visited in the morning see signs that speak for the beginning of some kind of new phase.
Lieutenant colonel evp. Juhani Pihlajamaan according to one such sign is that of the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov appointment to command the war.
– You can say that it is even exceptional that the commander of the armed forces is assigned to lead one operation, but it can therefore indicate a major attack.
Pihlajamaa points out that about 150,000 of the people invited to launch a movement in the fall have not yet taken to the front.
– That may be what is used to justify the large-scale attack. That when they get to the front, that’s when the big attack starts.
Pihlajamaa believes that nothing like the large-scale attack seen last February is on the horizon. Then Russia attacked Ukraine from several directions. A new “major attack” could instead mean an acceleration of warfare, which would also include missile strikes.
– Missiles are also decreasing all the time. Russia has difficulty maintaining such an intensity that it fires hundreds of missiles every day, but individual “missile days” can be held, Pihlajamaa states.
Putin has not backed down from his goals
Assistant professor at the University of Helsinki and National Defense University Katri Pynnöniemi reminds the president Vladimir Putin about the warlike New Year’s speech.
– In his New Year’s speech, Putin had nothing else to say to the Russians other than a speech about the war, the continuation of the war and its justifications. It is easy to conclude that this is the only agenda that country currently has. On the other hand, at no point has he retreated from the very maximal goals that have been set for the war of aggression.
Even Pynnöniemik does not expect that there will be an actual new major attack.
– Maybe it would be better to talk about raising the intensity and trying to prolong it [sotaa]the assistant professor says.
Russia and Belarus start an air war exercise
Last February, Russia used the territory of Belarus for its attack from the north. Now the countries are starting an air war exercise.
At least it doesn’t reduce the pressure on Ukraine, says Pihlajamaa. On the other hand, Russia cannot substantially change the situation with an air war exercise.
– Of course, more of these missile strikes may be directed at Ukraine from there. From Belarus, it is easier to influence, for example, the region of Western Ukraine.
The aerial warfare exercise is scheduled to continue until the beginning of February.