Facts: The agreement with Turkey
Turkey and Hungary are the only NATO countries that have not yet ratified Sweden’s application for membership in the defense alliance.
In the summer of 2022, Sweden and Finland concluded an agreement (a memorandum) with Turkey with a series of points that must be fulfilled in order for Turkey to give the green light to the countries’ NATO applications.
The agreement was signed on June 28 in Madrid. At the same time, Turkey released its veto against Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO membership.
As prospective NATO countries, Sweden and Finland pledged to support Turkey in the face of threats to the country’s national security. Sweden and Finland shall not provide support to the Kurdish YPG/PYD or the Gülen movement, and shall also unequivocally condemn all terrorist organizations that carry out attacks against Turkey.
Sweden and Finland must also process ongoing and unresolved extradition requests for persons whom Turkey classifies as terrorist suspects “quickly and carefully”.
The countries also state in the agreement that there shall be no arms embargo between them.
In March this year, Turkey agreed to Finland’s application. On April 4, Finland joined as NATO’s 31st member state.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s self-imposed role as gatekeeper between Sweden and NATO has been making headlines for months. But it is not something that is noticeable in Turkey’s election campaign. Few have an opinion and those who do toe the party line.
“Sweden is a nice country, you are welcome in,” says Elin Atila in Istanbul, who intends to vote for challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
“I have no problem with Sweden, but you can’t join NATO yet,” says Gökhan Sahin, who works for Erdogan’s party AKP’s election campaign in Beyparazi.
Why poll?
They wonder why we care, why we think that Sweden’s NATO application would be an election issue in Turkey. Like many others, they quote the words of the father of the country, Kemal Atatürk, that “peace at home brings peace in the world”.
— Erdogan could have made it something bigger, but there is no general opposition to Europe and it is not an issue on which he would win many votes, says Ali Carkoglu, professor of political science at Koc University in Istanbul.
The opposition coalition’s presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu has promised to admit Sweden into NATO. Both Ali Carkoglu and Mehmet Ali Tugtan, professors at Bilgi University in Istanbul, believe in Swedish NATO membership regardless of the election winner.
Opposition coalition presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, center, on election posters in Istanbul. No “straight track”
But this does not mean that Stockholm can count on a straight path to accession after the election, warns Carkoglu. Paradoxically, a win for Erdogan could make it easier. If the president wins, he will no longer have any reasons to keep Sweden on the stretcher, he points out. At the same time, the opposition has been accused of being too pro-Western, it could face setbacks if it gives the green light to Sweden’s NATO application too quickly.
— The National Alliance (opposition) can be pushed to be more hawkish. Erdogan can easily say that “we let them wait but you let them in right away”. The big question is how much you can ask of a civilized democratic country. The government is pushing the limits right now, says Carkoglu.
Mehmet Ali Tugtan, specializing in Turkey’s relationship with NATO, believes that it would be “downright unprofessional” for the National Alliance to let Sweden in at once, without counterclaims.
— One of the most fundamental points of their election program is to reintroduce professionalism. If their first measure was such an amateurish measure, it would be an own goal, says Tugtan to TT.
Mehmet Ali Tugtan, professor specializing in Turkey’s relationship with NATO, at Bilgi University in Istanbul. Brings the people
Mehmet Ali Tugtan sees the issue of the terrorist-labeled Kurdish organization PKK as completely reasonable for Erdogan to raise against Sweden. Nothing in the NATO issue will be resolved until the tightened anti-terror legislation, which is supposed to enter into force in Sweden on June 1, really does, he says.
— Erdogan has the Turkish people with him there. Terrorism, and in particular the PKK, is actively discussed. Today’s Swedish laws give the PKK too much freedom of movement, and the demand for stricter laws is seen as something natural.
The question came very timely for the president ahead of the election. The war in Ukraine and the Swedish issue allowed Erdogan to shift his focus from domestic politics and make demands on the United States. Turkey announced that a visit by a foreign minister would be welcome and emphasized its willingness to buy US F16 fighter jets.
Suddenly, Foreign Minister Antony Blinken came to Ankara in February and the US Congress is, somewhat in the dark, about to vote for a minor deal on F-16 planes.
— It’s a game and people understand that. You can dislike his ways, but you can’t accuse Erdogan just because he is a skilled player, says Mehmet Ali Tugtan.