Foreign policy experts estimate that the death of Hezbollah’s top leader Hassan Nasrallah will further increase tensions in the Middle East.
14:21•Updated 15:23
Foreign policy experts consider Hezbollah’s top leader Hassan Nasrallah death as a very significant issue for the Middle East and beyond.
Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Helsinki Hannu Juusola Nasrallah has had a really central position in Lebanon in the leadership of Hezbollah for decades and he has also played a really important role in the wider Iranian alliance in the Middle East region.
– Hezbollah is certainly in an internal crisis at the moment. They have lost a large part of their central leadership in a short time, and Nasrallah is of course still a separate matter.
According to Juusola, Nasrallah has gained a mythical reputation and has had a really central effect on Hezbollah’s role.
– This significantly increases the pressure on Hezbollah to use all its available methods to avenge this.
Visiting leading expert of the Foreign Policy Institute Olli Ruohomäki predicts that more attacks will be seen. He already commented on ‘s morning TV in connection with the pager explosions that the attack was probably Etiäinen’s future.
– Those attacks were most obviously carried out by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. We will see more such surgical strikes to eliminate Hezbollah’s military commanders and possibly other political leadership.
Ruohomäki believes that Nasrallah’s death is a very significant blow to Hezbollah’s ability.
– Such a leader cannot be replaced just like that. Who will take his place? Ruohomäki ponders.
What is Iran doing?
Both experts see that Iran has lost a very important partner in the region, which increases the pressure that Iran would somehow participate in retaliation.
– Iran has not retaliated Ismail To Haniyeh [Hamasin poliittinen johtaja] death in Tehran on Iranian soil and has been on a wait-and-see attitude for some time. From Iran’s point of view, Hezbollah is perhaps a more important actor than Hamas, Ruohomäki states.
– Iran’s leadership must do something to be credible both in the eyes of its own citizens and in the wider region, Juusola estimates.
On the other hand, the death of the leader of Hezbollah can partially restrain Israel, unless other countries carry out retaliatory strikes.
– You could think that it reduces the probability of an Israeli ground attack, unless Hezbollah succeeds in retaliating badly, Juusola reflects.
According to Juusola, Hezbollah’s possible revenge will decide the direction. If Hezbollah carries out large-scale attacks on Israel, in which many people die, Israel will launch a ground attack with more certainty.
– Nasrallah’s death is Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu in terms of a concrete political victory that strengthens his position.
Ruohomäki reckons that Israel can perhaps make some kind of quick strike with its ground forces in Lebanon, with the aim of eliminating, for example, Hezbollah’s weapons caches. A more extensive attack would tie up too many armed forces.
– However, Israel certainly has the will, at least with the armed forces and especially with the political leadership, that Hezbollah’s activities must be defeated, Ruohomäki says.
An iconic leader
Both experts see Nasrallah as an iconic leader for Hezbollah supporters. He was a military, political, religious and spiritual leader.
– A highly respected and also charismatic leader in the Hezbollah circle. The elimination of such a leader is really of great importance, Ruohomäki states.
– He was an extremely charismatic person whose words and actions were followed by everyone, regardless of what was thought of him. He was a very divisive figure, some Lebanese hated him a lot and some loved him, says Juusola.
According to Juusola, the death is a significant blow to the supporters, for whom Nasrallah was even a religiously worshiped person and a father figure.
Hannu Juusola described the situation in the Middle East as tight earlier this week before Nasrallah’s death: