John Helin reminds us that as winter and the rains approach, the chance of a breakthrough decreases even more.
An expert following the war in Ukraine of John Helin according to it, it seems that Ukraine’s counter-offensive operation, which started months ago, will hardly progress significantly this year.
According to Helin, there should also be a discussion about whether the entire counterattack operation has failed.
He justifies his view on Ukraine’s recent sticky or even non-existent progress on the front. According to Helin, for example, there has been very limited progress in the Bahmut area in recent weeks.
– In addition, in the Zaporizhia area, it would seem that the Ukrainian attack spearhead has even succeeded in pushing back in some places, Helin said in an interview with Radio Suomen Päivä on Monday.
Helin reminds us that when winter and the rains approach, the chance of a breakthrough decreases even more.
– If a breakthrough is not achieved, Ukraine’s stated minimum goals, such as the capture of the city of Tokmak, will not be realized.
Tokmak is a city heavily fortified by the Russians in the middle of the Zaporizhia region.
In addition, in Zaporizhia in the Robotyne area, a couple of army units have been used without achieving significant results, Helin points out.
– It is unclear what forces Ukraine would have to throw at creating a breakthrough in Robotyne.
ATACMS missiles are not “bridge-destroying missiles”
Last week, Ukraine carried out the first strikes with short-range ATACMS missiles received from the United States, and they reportedly inflicted significant losses on Russia.
However, Helin does not consider the missiles to be a significant addition to the Ukrainian military’s firepower. The reason for this is that Ukraine has hardly received missiles in large quantities. In addition, the missiles are older versions.
– They are not actual bridge-destroying missiles. They do not necessarily cause massive infrastructure destruction.
According to Helin, Ukraine has also had problems coordinating strikes with the missiles it already received.
– Ballistic missiles won’t help in that, if deep strikes can’t be made to work with other operations.