On Friday, the indictment against former US President Donald Trump was published, where he is accused, among other things, of having kept classified documents at his residence in Mar-a-Lago in Florida. A total of 37 charges are against Trump.
Jan Hallenberg is an expert on North American politics, and he believes that the indictment will undermine Trump’s success in the upcoming elections.
May benefit competitors
“The last time he was indicted, he received increased support from the Republicans, but I very much doubt that he will benefit from this indictment in the long term,” he says.
— This is the first federal indictment that a former president has ever faced. It’s possible to argue that the previous prosecution in New York is thin and political, but in this case I think it’s much harder to argue something like that.
Donald Trump has recently launched his campaign to be re-elected president, and he has been seen as the clear favorite to win the Republican primary. Jan Hallenberg believes that the indictment will benefit Trump’s competitors – even if he continues to emphasize Trump as the favorite.
Can influence undecided voters
Hallenberg divides the Republican Party into three groups: always-Trumpers, never-Trumpers, and maybe-Trumpers and he uses English to describe the groups.
— Within the Republican Party there are “always-Trumpers”, “never-Trumpers” and “maybe-Trumpers”. The third category likes his policies but thinks he has gone too far and that he cannot be voted for because of all the problems. I think that the prosecution can make that group choose another candidate in the primary election, says Jan Hallenberg.
Above all, the indictment affects Trump’s chances of winning a possible presidential election, Jan Hallenberg believes. There is a great risk that uncertain middle voters will be discouraged.
— If he wins the election to become the Republican presidential candidate, he will be greatly weakened in the big presidential election. There, a large part of “never-Trumpers” will either cast their votes or vote for the Democratic candidate. Then, significantly more of the independent voters, who might have considered a Republican, will not vote for Trump.