Next week’s summit is an important place for Ukraine to influence Western policy regarding it.
Ukraine’s counterattack has progressed more slowly than expected. Ukraine is frustrated by expectations and feels that it has not received enough material support, the researcher estimates Ilmari Käihkö I’ll be there in the morning on Monday.
On the Ukrainian side, according to Käihkö, there has been talk that spectacular results must be achieved this week so that they can be presented at the NATO summit next week. The summit will be held in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania.
In the past, decisions have been made in large meetings about Leopard tanks, for example. Earlier in the spring, it was hoped that decisions would be made about the F-16 fighters, says an expert who follows the war in Ukraine John Helin.
– Ukraine has seen the meetings as politically and militarily important places to influence the policy of Western countries regarding Ukraine, says Helin.
According to Käihkö, the future of Ukraine is at stake at the meeting.
– We are talking about security guarantees, which are unlikely to come. Maybe there will be security promises. The wording is sought behind the scenes in order to show unity, he estimates.
If there are no security guarantees, NATO countries are expected to support Ukraine in other ways. Käihkö highlights possible decisions about F-16 fighters or long-range missiles. However, it is to be expected that long-term support for Ukraine will continue.
– With support, we can catch up with Russia’s waiting strategy. If Putin hopes he can win the war by waiting, Ukraine’s backers should respond and show their resolve for the long term. Yes, it requires something more than words. It requires actions, and those actions are expected next week, Käihkö sums up.
“Western support for Ukraine is the reason why the war has continued for so long”
The West has focused on material aid during the war, but according to Helin, one must consider whether the focus has been on the right things.
– Giving ammunition and equipment has been of paramount importance. Then questions have been asked as to whether support should be focused more on education. Certain problems have now been seen in the training of the Ukrainian armed forces, and it will certainly be discussed at the NATO meeting, he says.
According to Helin, Western support for Ukraine is the reason why the war has continued for so long. However, Käihko adds that Ukraine is not satisfied with the amount of support offered.
– We do not produce enough ammunition for Ukraine’s needs. There is a lot to patch up here, and in this week’s criticism, Ukraine has come to the conclusion that they are not satisfied with the support, he says.
According to Käihkö, political decisions have not been made in time.
– How much are we willing to pay, and how big risks are we willing to take ourselves. It’s not about these strange questions, but these are of course difficult and extremely political questions, says Käihkö.
Watch the full interview in the video below: