The war between Russia and Ukraine has seen no major movements since the fall.
Until the new year in Makijivka rumbled. Ukraine carried out one of the most devastating attacks of the entire war.
Ukraine spoke of four hundred dead Russian soldiers. Russia claims there were 63 dead.
Working life professor, colonel evp. Martti J. Kari The University of Jyväskylä considers the Russians’ report to be false.
– Very typical for Russians. They will announce the exact amount so that the number is more believable. The correct number is somewhere between 63 and 400.
All figures and information circulating about the war must be approached very critically, both Kari and the leader of the Russia group, Lt. Col. Simo Pesu from the National Defense University.
Neither side of the war wants to reveal the number of their military forces or equipment, let alone losses, so as not to compromise operational security.
That is why even military experts have to rely only on estimates and, according to their own words, on public sources. For example, half of the reported Russian equipment losses should be subtracted so that we get closer to the real picture.
– About 3,000 of the Russian tanks are in use. If the losses reported by the Ukrainians were true, all the tanks staged for the attack would have already been destroyed.
And this is not the case.
Winter has frozen the situation at the front
Winter has frozen the situation at the front, but things are happening all the time under the surface. According to Kari and Pesu’s estimates, both sides of the war are preparing for the next big move.
– Ukraine is gathering strength. Discharged troops are re-equipped and serviced. Either to ward off a possible major attack by the Russians or to start one of our own, Kari estimates.
– The changes have been very small. Both sides are preparing to take the initiative, i.e. go on the offensive, says Pesu.
According to him, this indicates that the power relations between Russia and Ukraine are equal.
Russia has had equipment, military and ammunition superiority over Ukraine, but Western weapons and intelligence assistance, as well as training received by Ukrainian soldiers, balance the situation, according to experts.
Kari draws a picture of the Russian army’s warfare strategy. It is based on an American colonel John A. Warden’s to thinking. In the core of that circle is the country’s leadership, around it is the rest of society, and on the outer ring is the armed forces.
At the beginning of the attack, an attempt was made to capture Kyiv, where the country’s leadership operates. It failed.
In the summer, the Russians tried to destroy the Ukrainian armed forces with a battle of attrition. That too failed.
Also, progress is now not really possible in any direction. In the fall, they started to destroy the infrastructure, but even that is difficult, because the planes can be dropped and Kiev’s air defense will also improve with the Patriot system.
– In Russia, lunch is starting to be partially eaten, Kari sums up.
What will happen on the front in the near future?
Ukraine’s next movements are somewhat limited by the fortifications of Russian defense positions and the difficulty of crossing the Dnipro River.
In this sense, attack space is better available further north, where, for example, Bahmut has been fought since the fall.
Kari estimates that Ukraine would at some point try to cut off the land connection to Crimea, which means concentrating operations in the Melitopol-Mariupol direction.
– The Russians will certainly try to get through Bahmut, but the sharpest tip has already worn off. In addition, terrorist attacks will continue in different parts of the country, one of them will start a major attack in the spring, Kari estimates.
Pesu also says that a bigger attack is not in sight in the near future.
– The attack grouping is not visible. It probably won’t happen for another month or two. Russia has lost a significant part of the operational equipment. Now they are strengthening their defense in all directions and Bahmut will continue the tactical attack.
According to Pesu, both sides hide their true intentions because the goal is to surprise the enemy.
– You can only get the initiative by surprise.
Read more:
Zelenskyi: Russia is planning a prolonged series of drone strikes
Russia continued its airstrikes on Kiev – at least one person is said to have been wounded
One TV presenter is in a key position in Russia – he accuses millions of these lies every day