On Monday, Ukrainian military intelligence reported an attack on a Bujan-class corvette in the port of Baltijsk in the Kaliningrad region.
Ukraine’s possible attack on the Russian warship located in Kaliningrad is part of a bigger picture in which Ukraine is trying to move the war to Russian soil as well, according to the Foreign Policy Institute’s Visiting Researcher Antti Pihlajamaa Up in the morning.
– In this case, Russia has to constantly be on guard. It cannot protect all of its targets at the same time, and has to make choices about where to use its resources. Then you have to constantly be on your toes. This is certainly what Ukraine is striving for.
On Monday, Ukrainian military intelligence reported an attack on a Bujan-class corvette named Serpukhov in the port of Baltijsk in the Kaliningrad region. According to military intelligence, the fire inside the ship destroyed, among other things, the ship’s communication and automation system.
Claims about the attack could not be confirmed by independent sources.
Ukraine makes compromises in the ammunition shortage
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi signed a law last week that lowers the age limit for conscripts from 27 to 25. Pihlajamaa says that currently Ukraine has 400,000–450,000 fighters at the front, according to various estimates.
– Various social issues have limited the (Ukrainian) management’s desire to recruit people on a larger scale.
According to Pihilajamaa, the forces of Ukraine and Russia are so balanced that even tens of thousands more fighters would be needed on both sides for an attack aimed at a solution.
Alongside the personnel, Pihlajamaa raises material resources. Ukraine currently has enough ammunition for a defensive battle. The opportunity to attack will only come when more ammunition is received from the west.
– At the moment, Ukraine has to make compromises due to the ammunition shortage. As for artillery, Russia can fire five times the amount compared to Ukraine, says Pihlajamaa.
He believes that during the summer the fighting will intensify.
– Russia has an interest in trying to reach a solution or at least progress in Ukraine. They have search time now. The longer the war drags on, the more material limits come into play. As far as Ukraine is concerned, the situation is not bright, but Western arms aid may increase. From Russia’s point of view, there is no reason to wait.