The recent violence in the West Bank is yet another escalation – which can die out just as quickly, says Anders Persson, Israel expert and political scientist at Linnaeus University.
– We have seen some of these in the last six months since the new Israeli government took office. Most often, it is about an escalation with Israeli raids, Palestinian terrorist acts or other shootings. Then they tend to die out quite quickly, says Persson.
Persson says that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is being pressured by the right wing of the coalition and by the sections of the population that sympathize with the extreme right to carry out a large-scale military operation in the West Bank – and that pressure only increases when attacks of this kind occur.
During Wednesday, Israeli settlers went on the attack in several places in the West Bank, after the killing of four Israelis at a gas station on occupied land on Tuesday. The killing at the gas station, in turn, appears to be revenge for an Israeli military operation in the city of Jenin on Monday, which turned bloody when Palestinian militants tried to stop the soldiers.
– What we have seen in recent days is a cycle of violence with events that appear to be linked to each other. But it is not really certain that they are, says Persson and emphasizes that it is difficult to know the motive when the perpetrators die.
But the fact that the events have a connection is still likely, he believes.
Indications in the wrong direction
What we see on Wednesday is revenge from the settlers who have taken the law into their own hands and are carrying out acts of violence against the Palestinians, according to Persson.
– The government, which has strong extremist elements, finds it very difficult to curb this type of violence. There are members of the government who support these kinds of forces. It is their voters who do this to some extent, you could say.
According to Persson, all indicators point in the wrong direction. No peace negotiations are in sight, the death toll is record high on both sides, support for violence is high and there are extremist elements in the Israeli government.
– However, this does not automatically mean that the escalation will continue. It is a difficult situation to analyze. Different scenarios are possible for the future. It can be better, worse or the same.
Parallel processes
This weekend it also became clear that Netanyahu is going ahead with a heavily criticized bill that would mean that the Israeli parliament would be given the power to overturn judgments from the country’s highest court.
Persson says that the government is under pressure from different sides and is facing different crises at the same time: the relationship with the US, the relationship with the Arab world, the legislative proposals and the security situation.
– I think you should see these as parallel processes. If the violence were to stop on the bounce, the internal problems with the bills would still be largely the same. If the bills were to be resolved, the situation would probably be the same regarding security.