For several months now, the threat picture against Sweden has worsened. Foreign actors who have both the intention and the ability to commit terrorist threats have been “fed” a negative image of Sweden, according to Magnus Ranstorp, who is a terrorism researcher at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
The threats come from and are directed at established groups, but also at people who are asked to act alone.
– We have at least four or five terrorist groups that urge Muslims and others that it is a duty to take violent measures, says Magnus Ranstorp.
The terrorist network al-Qaeda last weekend called for attacks on Sweden and Denmark. Among other things, al-Qaeda wrote that “Denmark and Sweden are two small, despicable countries”, and called on Muslims to carry out “revenge” after the recent Koran burnings.
Statements that are particularly aimed at lone actors, according to Swedish terror researcher Hans Brun, active at King’s College in London.
“3,000 individuals”
But it is rare that lone perpetrators carry out terrorist acts completely alone, because they are often part of an established “virtual environment” in social media and have a strong ideological conviction, says Magnus Ranstorp.
– Rakhmat Akilov carried out the attack (on Drottninggatan in Stockholm) alone, but he had contact with IS in Syria.
Overall, the Security Police estimates that there are roughly 3,000 individuals in Sweden who are in violent environments. But not all of them necessarily pose a danger to society because not all of them are prone to attacks, says the terrorism researcher.
– It differs between individuals if there is both a will and an ability.
How inclined an individual is to carry out a terrorist attack is also dependent on several factors.
– There are many circumstances. What personality traits they have, what kind of problems they have, how socially isolated they are, why they want to get involved in violent contexts and what triggers them to resort to violence, he says.
Säpo maps
The security police have for many years mapped individuals who are in violent environments, according to Magnus Ranstorp.
– You look at personal characteristics and conditions and how much they move in these environments. Then you can take a number of measures against them if you see serious signs, to reduce the threat of attacks.
TT: Does Säpo know about these people?
– These people have appeared on Säpo’s radar and they have an iron eye on those who pose the greatest threat of attack. But that can change over time and a person on the periphery can become dangerous.
– They have to make a new assessment every day: who should we follow?
And finding individuals on the periphery who can conceivably act alone can be a challenge.
– It depends on how security-conscious they are. If they are security-conscious, they take measures to hide their digital traces, says Magnus Ranstorp.