Expert: Increased pressure on Turkey

The US and other NATO countries have increased the pressure on Turkey to approve Sweden as a NATO member, according to Turkey expert Paul Levin.

But the earthquake disaster may also have contributed to the Turkish opening about the NATO talks.

According to Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu, the country is ready to resume talks about Swedish membership in NATO.

The announcement came in connection with an ongoing visit to Turkey by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. American pressure may be a contributing factor, believes Paul Levin, who is director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University.

– There will be speculation. But with that as a caveat, several things have happened, he tells TT.

– Perhaps the most important thing is that the USA and other NATO countries put a certain increased pressure on Turkey, where they have underlined the importance for NATO that the expansion can take place.

“Positive development”

However, the opening for resumed talks may also have been affected by, among other things, the earthquake disaster in Turkey. At the same time, a little time has now passed since high-profile events such as the Koran burning outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm.

– The focus in Turkey has come to end up on the earthquake. But in addition, Swedish police have refused permission for two Koran burnings, I suspect that this has been noted in Ankara, says Paul Levin.

However, it is still only about the talks between Turkey and Sweden being able to resume, he points out. Mevlüt Cavusoglu has also underlined that they still do not think that Sweden has done enough.

– But it is clearly, from a Swedish point of view, a positive development, says Paul Levin.

Unpredictable period

From other NATO countries, there is hope that both Sweden and Finland can become full members in connection with the NATO summit in Vilnius in July.

In between, however, a presidential and parliamentary election for Turkey and its president Recep Tayyip Erdogan will probably await. This makes it difficult to predict what the latest Turkish announcement about the NATO talks will mean.

– There is a lot that can happen in Turkey when there are elections, says Paul Levin.

– Erdogan’s initial handling of the earthquake has received a lot of criticism in Turkey. If that is reflected in public opinion, it may become more turbulent and difficult to predict in Turkish domestic politics and that matters.