Israel is apparently preparing for a major ground offensive against the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip. A fighting force of hundreds of thousands of soldiers is currently being assembled at the Gaza border.
The rocket and commando attack on Israel launched by Hamas on Saturday was so massive and humiliating for Israel that the Israeli government is forced to respond to it for political reasons.
The fact that Israel has not yet launched its attack may be due to Hamas taking a large number of hostages. Although the Israeli leadership has assured that it will not negotiate with Hamas, it is possible that negotiations are taking place behind the scenes, thinks a lieutenant colonel working at the Defense Forces Research Institute Juha Mäkelä.
Hamas has announced that if Israel attacks and the bombing of Gaza continues, the terrorist organization will begin killing its prisoners.
This is how a ground attack would happen
In any case, Mäkelä is convinced that sooner or later Israel will start its ground attack, with limited goals.
The Israeli Armed Forces have announced that they are assembling a combat force of four divisions at the Gaza border. The size of one division is usually between 10 and 20,000 soldiers. Mäkelä does not believe that they would all start at the same time.
Hamas knows how to wait for an attack. Israel has a small chance of surprise, because it can choose from which direction the attack will come. Israel’s war leadership is considering this while clarifying Hamas positions.
– All Israeli intelligence sensors are directed to Gaza, Mäkelä says.
Israel’s primary goal is to stop Hamas’ rocket fire. The only permanent way to do this is to occupy the area, says Mäkelä.
According to him, the only way to attack the densely built cities of Gaza is to advance with the infantry in front, with the scouts in the lead. Valuable armored vehicles are not taken into narrow alleys where Hamas fighters could ambush them with anti-tank missiles.
Hamas is known to have plenty of, for example, Russian Kornet missiles, which are capable of destroying the Israeli Merkava battle armor, even though their protection is exceptionally strong.
– When Hamas is tied up in a firefight, it can be influenced from the air. A key part of the attack by the ground forces is the fire from combat helicopters, says Mäkelä.
When the ground forces have taken control of the area, its control is ensured by bringing in heavier equipment.
Tunnels and ruins
According to Mäkelä, a major challenge for Israel’s progress is the extensive tunnel network dug by Hamas. From there, Hamas can continue the fight. Hamas is believed to have been able to build very solid tunnels, and they contain, for example, communication equipment, says of The Guardian analysis.
It is possible that the Israeli forces will have to shoot the buildings in front of them to the ground in order to advance. The ruins provide endless shelters for Hamas fighters.
Mäkelä reminds of Russia’s Chechen war in 1994–95, when local troops in the capital Grožny destroyed Russian tanks from the roofs of houses. However, Mäkelä does not believe that Israel would destroy all the buildings in front of it.
The settlement center battle causes great losses for all parties.
Millions of civilians at war
As a theater of war, Gaza is exceptional, as the area is one of the most densely populated in the world. In an area the size of Espoo, 2.3 million people live in Gaza.
Israel has urged residents to move to Egypt through the Rafah border crossing, which is still open for now, but this kind of mass exodus is probably not realistic. No major movement has been seen either.
It is almost inevitable that civilians will fall victim to a future attack. Hamas’s interests may also include using human shields, Mäkelä reminds.
Hamas fighters can be difficult to distinguish from ordinary civilians. According to Mäkelä, the worst situation for civilians would be if Hamas gunmen were among civilians, and the Israelis would not know who are civilians and who are not.
– According to international law, fighters must have recognizable marks, he states.
Gaza’s difficult terrain
According to an analysis by The Guardian, Israel’s occupation of Gaza follows a certain pattern. The attack begins with heavy fire involving the air force, artillery and navy. There have been takeovers in 2009 and 2014. Israel has also carried out smaller attacks on the Gaza area.
There is low-lying countryside suitable for armor use in the north near the Erez border crossing, east of Khan Younis and south of Gaza City in Burej, where the terrain rises into a ridge. There, the armored forces get a slightly wider range of fire.
Philadelphi road near Rafah has also been used for attacks.
The Palestinians are able to prevent an attack from the north from the tall buildings of Beit Lahia and Jabaliya, for example. There are also a lot of industrial buildings favoring the defender along the main north-south road in Gaza.
All in the game
Israel occupied Gaza the last time in 2014. At that time, the conflict lasted just under two months. With the cease-fire agreement, Israel withdrew from Gaza.
According to Mäkelä, all the signs now point to the fact that the clash is getting bigger.
– I don’t think that Hamas thinks like letting Israel take over, let’s go underground and strike later, Mäkelä points out.
– Now it is the entire existence of Hamas and its conditions. I believe they will hit back harder, he continues.
Israel would like to destroy the entire organization, but Mäkelä does not believe that it is militarily possible.
He reminds us that time is not on Israel’s side. The country is getting sympathy now, but as the war drags on and images of the bombing spread to the world, sympathy may wane. In other Arab countries, there is a growing desire to support the Palestinians.
Mäkelä believes that Israel will leave by force and take over certain parts of Gaza. Then, hopefully, cease-fire negotiations will begin, possibly through foreign countries.
– The worst thing would be if peace mediation is not given a chance, but the aim is to destroy all of Hamas with massive force. Then such a mess would begin in the Middle East, which has not been seen in 50 years, Mäkelä warns.