Wednesday night’s ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is a huge relief, says professor of Middle East studies Hannu Juusola.
– It is a huge relief when you think about the human suffering that has been experienced during these months in connection with the hostages and the residents of Gaza, says Juusola.
However, the idea is accompanied by uncertainty about the future. Reconstruction in bombed Gaza will probably take years, maybe decades.
– The continuation will be difficult. It will be very difficult to find the type of solution that would allow the restoration of humane conditions in Gaza for a very long time.
Juusola points out that the exact details of the contract are not yet completely clear. Still, the basic features of the agreement seem to be much the same as those that the outgoing US president Joe Biden already presented at the end of May.
– Of course, it comes to mind for many how much suffering would have been avoided if this agreement had been accepted at that stage.
These factors led to the agreement
The approach of a change of power in the United States was a key factor in why the truce between the parties came about right now, says Juusola. Biden, who was in a weak position, is giving way, and Donald Trump comes to power.
Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu the administration is hoping for strong support behind its policies from Trump, which gives Trump leverage.
– Trump’s opportunities to put pressure on the parties are in a completely different category in this situation. According to the information received, his administration has played a big role in the completion of the agreement recently, says Juusola.
Many other things have also changed. There has been a growing understanding in Israel that military means will not bring a solution to the conflict.
– Israeli soldiers have continued to die, and quite a lot recently, in northern Gaza.
On the other hand, the position of Hamas has weakened while the influence of its allies in the region has decreased.
– They also understand even more clearly that the contract they are getting now is perhaps the best they can get, Juusola says.
Will the deal stand?
Juusola estimates that the permanence of the ceasefire and, for example, responsibility issues related to the reconstruction of Gaza may still face many challenges.
– The further we go after the agreement, the less clearly agreed details there are.
It is possible that in the future problems will be caused, for example, by views on whether Israel will completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip.
– This is of course accompanied by the threat that the war will continue or start again, at least on some scale.
Juusola considers it almost certain that there will still be violations of the terms of the agreement. Still, the pressures to end the conflict or at least bring it under control are hard on all parties.
– Time will tell. It is very difficult to say anything with certainty at this stage.
In the next stages of the agreement, Israel will withdraw from Gaza’s population centers in the near future, hostages will begin to be released, and aid will “reasonably” begin to flow to Gaza, Juusola says.
Hamas tries to present itself as the winner
Juusola believes that a truce can calm the wider situation in the Middle East. The conflict has caused unrest in Lebanon and Iran, and the ceasefire may also have an impact on the activities of the Houthis in Yemen.
There are many uncertainties surrounding the effects of the ceasefire on the internal dynamics of Hamas-run Gaza.
– Since the situation involves the release of Palestinian prisoners, Hamas will certainly try to present this as a victory and one of the arguments that the sacrifices were necessary.
However, according to Juusola, it is clear that Hamas has weakened politically during the war. However, it is uncertain what kind of Palestinian political field will be formed after the conflict.
Israeli ambassador: Families relieved
With the ceasefire, Hamas and Israel also agreed on the release of the hostages.
Ambassador of Finland to Israel Nina Nordström says that in Israel, especially among the hostages’ families, the initial reactions are easier.
– They have been waiting for this moment for more than four hundred days and are of course happy that many of them are going to get their family members home.
However, there are also feelings of disappointment in the air. According to the resulting agreement, Hamas would release 33 Israeli hostages in the first six weeks.
A total of 98 hostages are believed to remain.
– Apparently not all of them are alive anymore, so there will still be families who won’t get their family members back at least right away, says Nordström.