Toni Alaranta, a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute and an expert in Turkey, says that Turkey will see a place in the political game when Finland and Sweden are expected to apply for NATO membership next week. However, Turkey has recently eased its relations with major NATO countries.
President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated today, Friday, that Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership would be a mistake and that Turkey could not support the countries’ membership.
With its opposition, Turkey could overturn Finland’s possible application for membership. Finland and Sweden are expected to apply for NATO membership next week.
Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute Toni Alaranta however, Erdoğan’s comments are welcome, as Turkey sees an opportunity to negotiate with other NATO countries on issues and concessions that are important to him.
– The Turkish press has mentioned the recognition of Northern Cyprus, the eradication of the activities of the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, from European countries, the eradication of the Gülen movement and the lifting of various arms embargoes, Alaranta lists.
– I assume that Turkey wants to negotiate all of these.
For example, the Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg has reiterated in public how quickly any applications for membership from Finland and Sweden could be processed.
– This clearly shows that the rapid processing of Finnish and Swedish applications is not necessarily as realistic as previously thought, Alaranta says.
Turkey’s opposition would exacerbate relations with the West
According to Alaranta, Erdoğan’s comments have little to do with Finland or Sweden in the end. Of course, Turkey remembers the criticism of its actions in the Kurdish regions of Syria, for example.
– In particular, Sweden has supported (through statements) Syrian Kurdish groups and criticized Turkish operations. But Finland and Sweden are quite small players, Alaranta says.
In the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey has balanced between the parties. Russia and Ukraine are important partners for Turkey. Representatives from Russia and Ukraine have been negotiating in Istanbul, and President Erdoğan has invited the presidents of both countries to the same table.
According to Alaranta, a balanced policy is important for Turkey.
– Turkey has previously stated that the situation in the Black Sea must not be further exacerbated and must focus on easing the conflict. Now it is possible that they interpret this (Finland’s and Sweden’s possible applications for NATO membership) to exacerbate the conflict, Alaranta says.
Turkey has sought to become a peace mediator, but Erdoğan, who has ruled the country arbitrarily, is facing a presidential election in June next year.
According to Alaranta, opposing or even blocking Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership would be a strange move in the current situation. Turkey has recently sought to improve its relations with major NATO countries such as the United States, Germany and France.
“If Turkey alone were to oppose, when everyone else is in favor, it would once again exacerbate relations between Turkey and the great West,” Alaranta thinks.
– I assume this is a domestic threat: he is showing his supporters that he can say anything to the West. On the other hand, it is a counter-service tactic that something must be gained from Turkey conceding.