The New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) has not yet blown out its first candle that Jean-Luc Mélenchon is no longer master in his kingdom. This is undoubtedly the major lesson of the exclusive Elabe survey for L’Express. Student François Ruffin is taking off and moving forward in the hearts of left-wing voters and environmentalists. No less than 53% of them believe that the deputy reporter for the Somme would be the best candidate, against 46% for Mélenchon. And Ruffin, who never ceases to wonder about his presidential destiny, to appear as the one who can expand the Nupes beyond the rebellious nails: nearly 6 out of 10 French people consider that he is best placed to represent the LEFT.
The investigation is above all a new warning for Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The triple candidate for the presidential election suffers from an image deficit among left-wing voters, where François Ruffin appears much more consensual. A deficit that has widened over the months of existence of the Nupes. 62% of left-wing voters see Mélenchon as more arrogant, 71% consider him more authoritarian and only 23% find him more sincere. His rebellious rival is rather perceived as closer to the people (45%), more sincere (43%) and more sympathetic (45%) among these same voters. Only satisfaction for Mélenchon: a much greater notoriety than the deputy.
© / Art Press
“Mélenchon has not said his last word”
Should we bury Jean-Luc Mélenchon? “We understand that the people on the left are looking to see if there are alternatives, but they have not turned the page on Mélenchon,” explains Bernard Sananès, president of the Elabe institute. In this face-to-face which does not say its name, François Ruffin poses his differences, but not yet serious markers. In the eyes of left-wing voters, he is considered more credible than the leader of La France insoumise on ecological issues, the fight against social inequalities, civic life, education, purchasing power.
On credibility, Ruffin even challenges Mélenchon among the voters of the latter. It is on the economy, the international and security that the former candidate for the presidential election restores his image. “Its potential to broaden the base of the Mélenchon electorate is an asset. In short, there is a match but Mélenchon has not said his last word”, analyzes Bernard Sananès.
© / Art Press
Do better?
A few days ago, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, in a tweet, threw François Ruffin into the deep end of the presidential election. “François is ready”, he wrote. Many see it as a handover. And yet, the path to “do better”, as Mélenchon pushed on the evening of April 10, is still long. Because in the eyes of the French, neither is convincing. Between 58 and 72% of French people believe that they are not credible either on the reduction of social inequalities, or on the improvement of the health system and the pension system, or on security, immigration or even education. .
And neither of the two men manages to find the aura in the eyes of the lost electorate of the left, the workers, a good part of whom has snuggled up in the arms of the National Rally of Marine Le Pen. The two men create rejection, if not indifference. “If we take the height of view, we can see that the left is not close to recovering the working electorate, Ruffin or not. It is very much held by Marine Le Pen”, observes Bernard Sananès. A warning shot, for one as for the other.