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According to defense experts, the armed forces must be prepared for all scenarios during the NATO wait. Archive image.
1 / 2Photo: Mikael Fritzon/TT
The concern that Sweden will not be admitted to NATO in the long run is exaggerated. Despite all the trips, it is still a temporary delay, not a total stop, according to assessors.
– Sweden does not need a plan B, but a plan A 2.0, says Professor Kjell Engelbrekt.
Sweden is now almost six months behind Finland in the NATO process.
During the late summer, Turkish President Erdogan continued to create uncertainty around Sweden’s NATO approval and reiterated that Sweden must do more. The other day, however, he opened up to a yes – if Turkey gets fighter jets from the US.
Despite all the setbacks, it is not time to talk about a plan B for Sweden, defense experts TT spoke to believe.
– Even if it were to drag on for another six months, I don’t think it would have such big consequences that there is reason to talk about a plan B. It sounds like an alternative to NATO membership and I don’t think that will be needed, says Kjell Engelbrekt, professor of political science at the Norwegian Defense Academy.
No alternative
Nor does Jacob Westberg, docent in war science at the Norwegian Defense Academy, believe that a plan B is necessary. He believes that NATO membership will be resolved in the not too distant future.
– But it would also be extremely difficult to create an alternative. The countries in our immediate area are already tied to NATO and cannot pledge themselves to Sweden in isolating solutions.
However, Sweden must update its current planning 1.0, Engelbrekt believes. The armed forces must be prepared for all scenarios, even the more improbable ones, he emphasizes.
– We must have a defense force that is ready to respond to provocations and also outright attacks against Swedish territories or Swedish interests.
The armed forces need to be a little more flexible and strengthen capabilities where needed, such as Gotland and northern Sweden, according to Engelbrekt.
Tell
Turkey’s president has promised that he will send over the Swedish NATO application for ratification as soon as possible when the Turkish parliament opens on Sunday.
The Swedish government has expressed a hope that it will go as quickly as for Finland, a couple of weeks. But if Sweden is a pawn in a larger game, it can drag on even further.
But Sweden is important to NATO and sooner or later the biggest and heaviest players in the alliance will speak out, believes Engelbrekt.
– Right now, the real security policy situation is that Sweden is not that vulnerable, so you can live with it for a while. The question is how much patience one has.
The security insurances Sweden has received from countries such as the USA and Great Britain are at the same time a fresh commodity, Westberg points out.
– When they were issued, it was thought that the time span would be quite short. The assurances are also not linked to parliamentary decisions in these countries, but have been given by the executive branch.
After new elections, they must therefore probably be renewed.
Not an emergency situation
TT: Should Sweden instead obtain written binding agreements with individual NATO countries?
– It is not a track we should activate now. It would send the signal to Turkey and Hungary that there is no rush to accept Sweden as a member, says Westberg.
The armed forces have previously expressed that there could be problems if Swedish NATO membership takes more than a year after Finland. However, it is above all about defense planning, according to Engelbrekt.
– Sweden is not at every table. But it’s not like it’s an emergency situation by any means.
FACT Sweden’s path towards NATO
Sweden applied for membership in NATO, in parallel with Finland, on 18 May 2022.
On July 5, 2022, Sweden and Finland received formal status as prospective members, “invitees” in English.
For Finland, the process ended in April this year when membership became completely clear after Hungary and Turkey became the last NATO countries to ratify the country’s application.
For Sweden, 29 out of 31 countries have ratified – Turkey and Hungary remain.
In connection with the NATO summit in Vilnius at the beginning of July, an agreement was concluded between Turkey, Sweden and NATO. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan then promised to “as soon as possible” send the Swedish application to parliament for ratification.
Hungary has said that an approval is only about “technicalities” and that the country should not be last to ratify. But the decision has been postponed several times.
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