Finland’s former ambassador to Russia Hannu Himanen considers it entirely possible that the organizers of Friday night’s massacre in Moscow can be found in the Russian security services, although the finger credibly points to the terrorist organization ISIS.
The attack killed nearly 140 people, and four suspects have already been charged.
– The idea that ultimately the organizer of the attack can be found inside Russia, i.e. in the Russian security services, should not be completely ruled out, said Himanen in the morning of .
– All information and facts available to us come from the Russian authorities, emphasizes Himanen.
The attack in Moscow takes thoughts to the turn of the millennium. In 1999, there were several apartment building explosions in Russia, in which around 300 people died.
Russia blamed the Chechens for the apartment building bombings, but it has also been speculated that the Russian security service FSB, or former KGB, could have been behind the apartment building explosions.
Such a claim was made at the turn of the millennium by a now-deceased oligarch who turned into a critic of Putin Boris Berezovsky British magazine of The Guardian in the interview.
In 2019 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reportsthat Sergey Kovalev, who led one of the teams investigating the 1999 apartment building attacks, also believes that security officials could have been behind it. A public open investigation was never allowed, he criticized.
Whatever the truth, after the high-rise attacks, another Chechen war began, and counter-terrorism helped Vladimir Putin to victory in the 2000 presidential election.
As a result, even a business proposal, if Russia needs one
Himanen and director of the Aleksanteri Institute Markku Kangaspuro discussed the causes and consequences of Friday’s attack in the morning of .
Kangaspuro stated that the terrorist attack does not affect the incidents on the front in Ukraine, but President Putin is of course trying to take advantage of the tense state of the Russians.
– What is happening in Russia now is, of course, an increase in authority and police powers, which Putin already announced in his speech. It has also been hinted at introducing the death penalty. The opposition’s room for maneuver is narrowing even further, Kangaspuro estimates.
According to Kangaspuro, Russia has an obvious reason to find out how firmly the sub-organization Isis-K is behind the attack. On the other hand, Russia wants to use the situation politically to promote the goals of the war.
This could also result in a new business launch, if Russia needs it, Kangaspuro estimates.
“Citizens are being prepared to intensify the war effort”
Russia has tried to blame the attack on Ukraine. Why?
Former Finnish ambassador to Russia Himanen sees two explanations for this. The second is spiritual mobilization, i.e. the fact that the people are wanted even more strongly behind military operations. Another reason is that Russia did not take terrorist warnings seriously, and they want to cover this up.
– Citizens are being prepared for strengthening the war effort and launching a movement, which will hardly be large-scale, but the Russian armed forces need more men at the front. Another reason is that the Kremlin clearly wants to cover up the fact that Russia did not take seriously the US warning that there is a threat of an ISIS terrorist attack.
Himanen says that Russians are at least as cynical as their leaders, so it is difficult to say how the people react to the accusations against Ukraine. However, the management’s explanations strengthen the belief that Russia is waging war against the West and the United States, the former ambassador to Russia believes.
The attention of the security services elsewhere
Markku Kangaspuro thinks that the terrorist attack was possible because the attention of the security services was on Ukraine and the internal opposition.
– Nevertheless, it is a downright shame for Putin, who has a background in the FSB, and his organization, that something like this can happen.
– The fact that Putin announced that the US warnings are a provocation shows the weakness of the authoritarian regime.
When decisions are made with a very narrow evaluation system, mistakes can happen, says Kangaspuro and points out that it is not known what type of warning the US gave.
Putin’s position will probably only get stronger
According to Hannu Himanen, the attack can either weaken or strengthen Putin. A theory can be presented about both. Putin wants to show with all his speeches and future actions that he is a strong leader, sums up Himanen.
In their grief, the citizens may think that now if ever a strong leader is needed, and so Putin’s position will probably become stronger, reflects Himanen.
The timing of the attack right after the presidential election drama is not a coincidence either. If it was about terrorists pursuing their own cause, the purpose was to cause a distortion in Putin’s victory celebration, sees Himanen.
Democracy is narrowing – the death penalty can be restored
Security measures in Moscow have been tightened, which, according to Kangaspuro, always narrows democracy.
Himanen, on the other hand, believes that a bill on the restoration of the death penalty is coming to the Duma. It will be completed in a few days, and Himanen estimates that the first executions of a show nature will be carried out immediately.
The death sentence is a powerful deterrent for the people, because accusations are made to the point of absurdity for many kinds of actions, says Himanen.
Information from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty about the investigation of the 1999 apartment building attacks added to the article, the article was updated on 25.3. at 1:22 p.m.