(Finance) – This morning it emerged that a December 2023 the Eurozone composite PMI fell at 47 points from a previous 47.6, still above the October level, with the manufacturing PMI stabilizing at 44.2, while in services the index fell to 48.1 from 48.7. “The average level of the composite PMI is consistent with a GDP contraction of around -0.4% q/q in the 4th quarter of 2023”, say analysts from the Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo.
“We have already underlined how after the pandemic the correlation with economic activity has weakened and we believe that, as in the case of the 3rd quarter, the PMIs are probably overestimating the slowdown in the cycle – we read in the note signed by Andrea Volpi, economist for the euro area – However, we expect GDP to contract in the 4th quarter as well and for the first quarter of next year to see only a slight recoveryconsistent with growth of 0.4% on average per year in 2024.”
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